The National Bank plans to sell $1.2-1.3 billion in November

Our Comments and Expectations

External Environment. Yesterday’s session was challenging for the U.S. market. The technology sector, in particular, suffered significantly: the Nasdaq 100 index and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF tracking it dropped by 2.76% and 2.52%, respectively. The S&P 500 lost 1.86%, while the industrial Dow Jones index showed the smallest losses. The downward trend began two days ago, when Microsoft and Meta stocks fell in after-hours trading following their earnings reports. Meanwhile, economic news again confirmed the strength of the U.S. economy. Weekly initial jobless claims data showed a decline of 12,000, reaching 216,000 claims, which was lower than the analysts' forecast of 228,000. After the close of trading, Apple’s stock fell by 2% due to reports of weaker-than-expected sales in China. On the other hand, Amazon rose in after-hours trading (+6%) due to an optimistic forecast, while Intel’s stock gained 7%, as the company's prospects brought optimism regarding its recovery from the negative situation. This may boost investor sentiment in Friday’s session, but the central event likely to determine market dynamics remains the monthly Non-farm Payrolls report. In Europe, stocks have fallen for the third consecutive session. The Stoxx 600 index reached its lowest levels since August 15, while the DAX approached its 50-day moving average. It was also reported yesterday that inflation in the Eurozone increased to 2% year-on-year in October, with a forecast of 1.9%; in September, it was 1.7%. Oil prices rose after CNN reported that Israel was on high alert for a potential strike from Iran.

Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds stood at 4.29% yesterday. Prices stopped rising but are still close to their July highs.

KASE Index. The KASE index continues its series of neutral sessions. Yesterday, prices rose during the day and attempted to test the resistance level at 5240 points, but then retreated.

Index Stocks. The largest influence on the formation of the "shadow" on the daily candle of the index came from Kaspi. The stock price rose to 58,000 tenge but closed neutrally. On the Nasdaq, Kaspi remains volatile, showing a 3.1% decrease. However, on the chart, we see not so much volatility but rather an attempt at local consolidation below the 50-day moving average. The People's Bank nearly reached 220 tenge, which is the highest level since May, but also retreated during the session.

Currency. According to data from the published currency market report, net dollar sales from the National Fund amounted to $1.365 billion in October, and despite this, the tenge depreciated by 1% during the same period. A sale of $1.2-1.3 billion is planned for November, along with $130-140 million within the operation to purchase Kazatomprom shares. Based on the volumes and results for the tenge in October, it is expected to slightly strengthen in November due to additional demand for tenge during the tax period.