Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 failed to renew its highs for the second consecutive session, falling by 0.3%. Most sectors posted gains, but large-cap stocks — Nvidia, Meta, Oracle, and Amazon — prevented a deeper market decline. Delta Airlines and Pepsi shares also showed solid growth after strong earnings reports. Next week, the earnings season kicks off with JP Morgan on October 14. In Europe, stocks slightly retreated from record highs after a generally calm session. Asian markets opened lower, dragged down by the tech sector: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.5%, China’s CSI 300 fell 2.3%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1%. Oil prices declined yesterday and continue to weaken today, with Brent trading at $64.8 per barrel. Gold corrected by 2.8% yesterday. S&P 500 futures are trading neutral.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.5% yesterday. U.S. high-yield bonds showed a notable drop in prices.
KASE Index. The KASE index rebounded strongly yesterday, climbing from the lower to the upper boundary of its sideways channel in a single session. We expected a rise yesterday, but the final result exceeded our forecasts. Since prices are now testing a resistance level, we expect a more neutral session today rather than another surge or a move to new highs.
Index stocks. The biggest gainer yesterday was BCC, which rose by 2.8%. This is interesting because:
It could signal a reawakening of stocks that tend to pause and then resume growth;
There is a clear technical signal — an upward breakout of the descending trendline that began at the September 4 all-time highs. The potential for a retest and recovery to those highs is just under 13%.
Kazatomprom was the second-best performer, with its shares rising by a similar margin on the LSE. Although its GDRs are now in the overbought zone, they still look solid in the medium term and remain in an uptrend. Meanwhile, Air Astana and Kaspi do not yet show strong bullish potential: AIRA remains below key resistance levels, and Kaspi continued its decline on Nasdaq, widening the gap between local and foreign prices. At the market open, we observe two key movers: BCC up 1.7% and Kaspi down 2.44%. Considering these dynamics, we expect a neutral session today, though CCBN and Kazatomprom could provide some support if they continue to rise as they did yesterday. After the market opened, it was announced that the National Bank raised the base rate from 16.5% to 18%. While expected, this move is still viewed as negative for the market.
Currency. The dollar continues to weaken against the tenge and the ruble. However, the pair is approaching a strong medium-term uptrend line, which could trigger a rebound. A test of support and a potential reversal could occur around the middle of next week.