Our comments and expectations
External background: Volatility in global markets remains elevated. The S&P 500 fell by 3.5% after a sharp 9.5% surge the previous day. Trump announced that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would rise to 145%, acknowledging that this could lead to "transitional problems" but expressed confidence that it would ultimately be "a beautiful thing." He later stated he was close to a first tariff deal, though he did not specify with which country—failing to reassure the markets. The day ended with unconfirmed rumors that the Trump administration is considering delisting Chinese public companies trading on U.S. exchanges. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly declined by 0.1% compared to February—marking the first drop in nearly five years, which signals some relief for consumers amid widespread tariff implementation. In Europe, indices rose by 3–4.5%, following the momentum from the S&P 500 in the previous session. Futures point to further growth: the Stoxx 600 is up 0.8%, and the DAX is up 1.4%. The euro jumped by 1.6%, and the Swiss franc reached its highest level in a decade as investors sought alternatives to the dollar. Asian markets show mixed trends in the morning: Chinese and Hong Kong indices are rising, while Japan’s is declining. In China, investors are anticipating more decisive economic stimulus measures from the government. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% at the moment. Oil is trading below $64, and gold continues to hit new historical highs.
Bonds: The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stood at about 4.4% yesterday, reaching the highest level since late February. Non-investment grade corporate bonds and emerging market securities showed corrections.
KASE Index: The KASE index closed yesterday with a 1.9% gain—a good, though not peak, performance. Only one security posted a decline. Today’s session opened on a moderately negative note.
Index Stocks: KASE is down 0.7% at the open—likely in response to the weak close in U.S. markets. We believe that throughout the session, quotes will try to determine direction, balancing between following the U.S. trend and moderate growth in Europe. Kaspi shares may not provide support today, as their ADS fell by 5.7% on Nasdaq yesterday. On the other hand, the GDRs of Halyk Bank rose yesterday and are not showing declines this morning (HSBK +0.7%, KAP +1.63%). The currency gap between Kaspi shares and ADS is 7.8%, and for Kazatomprom it is 6.9%.
Currency: The USDKZT rate closed at 515.8 yesterday and is declining again today to 514. The dollar is weakening both against European currencies and in Asian markets. The DXY index is dropping to 99.97—its lowest level since July 2023.