Our Comments and Expectations
External Environment. The S&P 500 showed gains on Friday after a rather volatile Thursday. Markets increased expectations of monetary policy easing in December to 60% after John Williams, President of the New York Fed, stated that a rate cut remains possible in the near term. Optimism was also supported by reports that U.S. authorities are holding preliminary discussions on allowing Nvidia Corp to sell its H200 chips to China.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects a rate cut next month, followed by two more reductions in March and June.
Morning sentiment in Asia is mixed: Hang Seng is up 1.9% driven by Alibaba’s AI app progress, while South Korea’s Kospi declines by 0.2%.
Tensions between Japan and China persist, as Japan confirmed plans to deploy missiles on an island near Taiwan.
Oil prices continue to weaken, reaching the lowest level since October 22, now trading around $61.9.
Bonds. Corporate bonds advanced on Friday, while the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries declined to 4.06%.
KASE Index. The autumn correction in the local market continued on Friday, influenced by the global decline in equities. In addition to the general fall of former growth leaders (BCC), stocks already in a downward phase (Kaspi), and volatile securities (Kazatomprom), Halyk Bank has recently joined the underperformers after conducting an accelerated SPO at a discounted price, which triggered a selloff.
On the index chart, prices dropped to 6,644 points but were bought back from the support level of 6,690 points.
Index Constituents. HSBK fell 5.4% locally and 3.3% on the LSE. The placement price was reported at 298.66 KZT per share and $23 per GDR. This is slightly above Friday’s close, so by market logic, the stock may fall another few percent. We see no significant reasons for further decline thereafter.
As noted earlier, the placement does not imply a fundamental shift — meaning it is not a clear trigger for either strong growth or notable downside. Instead, it creates an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate shares at a discount. We expect a gradual recovery rather than an immediate rebound.
BCC was the second biggest loser, approaching its two-month lows at around 4,550 KZT — a potential strong support level if the external backdrop does not worsen.
Kazakhtelecom unexpectedly led the gains on Friday, likely supported by reports of a potential SPO.
GDRs and ADS also had a weak session. Kaspi fell to its November 7 lows — further decline would worsen the technical picture.
FX Market. The dollar strengthened against the tenge on Friday; however, movement remains relatively weak. This morning USDKZT trades neutrally. Meanwhile, the ruble has started to appreciate against the dollar following signals of a possible resumption of peace negotiations.