The People's Bank has announced a recommendation on dividends

Our Comments and Expectations

External Background. The trading session on external markets yesterday was moderately negative. The S&P 500 declined by 0.3%, still under the negative impact of the tariffs imposed on imported cars in the U.S. GDP data showed that the U.S. economy grew by 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, a faster pace than previously expected, while corporate profits increased by 5.9%—the highest in the last two years. Investors are now awaiting personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data today. According to a Bloomberg survey, it is expected to have risen by 0.3% in February for the second consecutive month. The core index is projected to accelerate to 2.7% year-on-year. On the geopolitical front, there is a demand to take control of all major future investments in infrastructure and mineral extraction in Ukraine, which is opposed by the EU. According to Bloomberg, the EU has ruled out easing sanctions against Russia and may even tighten them. In Europe, indices declined by 0.3–0.7% and are close to retesting their 50-day moving average. Asian markets are showing negative sentiment this morning, particularly in Japan and Korea, where major indices are down by 2%. In the commodities market, gold has become the key asset attracting investors' funds. Prices have risen to $3,118 per ounce this morning, reaching a new all-time high. Oil is falling for the second consecutive session and is trading at $73.

Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries reached 4.36%. Corporate bonds continue to decline slowly.

KASE Index. The KASE index remains moderately negative. Today, the local market is supported by Halyk Bank shares, but this has not had a strong effect so far.

Index Stocks. Halyk Bank's GDRs surged by 13.2% yesterday following the announcement of a dividend recommendation of 29.64 KZT, with a record date set at 00:00 on May 5. The General Shareholders' Meeting (GSM) is scheduled for April 30. Additionally, the bank presented a strong report for 2024: Q4 interest income reached a record 599 billion KZT (+29% y/y and +7% q/q), while quarterly net profit grew to 282 billion KZT (+81% y/y and +8.7% q/q). Earnings per share for the entire year increased by 33% y/y. Meanwhile, Kazatomprom’s GDRs declined—without any new developments, this may appear to be a shift of funds into HSBK shares. All analytical recommendations in the Bloomberg terminal remain at a "buy" level, with an average growth potential of 54.5%. Kazatomprom's management considers the current price decline to be a short-term occurrence, emphasizing that long-term contracts have been concluded at ~$80/lb since mid-2024. Today, at the market opening, HSBK is up by 4.5%, while Kazatomprom is down by about 3%.

 

Currency. The dollar is strengthening against the tenge today, reaching 503.6. Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) declined yesterday, completing the local growth wave that began on March 19.