Our Comments and Expectations
Global Background. The S&P 500 rose another 0.5%, renewing historical highs and closing out its best quarter since the end of 2023. Market sentiment was boosted by news on trade talks: the EU is reportedly ready to accept a universal 10% tariff proposed by Donald Trump, while seeking reductions for priority sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The parties have until July 9 to reach an agreement. According to the White House, a trade deal with India is nearing completion, while Trump threatened Japan with new sanctions for refusing to buy American rice. Goldman Sachs analysts believe the first Fed rate cut could happen as early as September. The next key data points include the ISM Manufacturing Index (expected to show modest improvement), JOLTS job openings, and construction spending figures. In Europe, markets corrected: the Stoxx 600 and DAX indices fell by 0.4–0.5%. Inflation in Germany unexpectedly slowed to 2% year-on-year. In Asia, sentiment was mostly negative: Hang Seng continued its decline, and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.2% despite strong economic reports. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%. Oil remains stable. The IEA forecasts global oil demand to grow by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030. A survey of 32 traders and analysts suggests OPEC+ may agree to a fourth production increase — adding 411,000 barrels per day starting in August.
Bonds. Yields on U.S. 10-year government bonds rose slightly but remain within a broader downtrend.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose for a second consecutive session and is now approaching historical highs. However, we believe that prices are unlikely to break through local resistance levels in the near term and will likely remain within a narrow sideways trend between 5,940 and 6,030 points.
Index Stocks. Three stocks showed solid gains yesterday — Halyk Bank, Kaspi, and Kazakhtelecom. The key event was HSBK shares breaking out confidently from a triangle pattern and hitting new highs, which forms a strong technical signal for continued long-term growth of what we consider one of the top portfolio picks in the KASE index. BCC stock also rose by 0.65%, continuing the upward wave that began on May 23. On the Nasdaq, Kaspi ADS declined again after bouncing off the descending trendline, postponing a potential breakout. Kazatomprom on the LSE gained 0.7% but remains in a local consolidation range. According to Bloomberg, uranium futures dropped 7.1% — from $78.9 to $74.35 — though other sources did not confirm this decline. Meanwhile, uranium ETFs rose by 1.7–1.9%.
Currency. The USDKZT is trading at 519.4 this morning — relatively unchanged. The DXY dollar index has fallen for seven consecutive sessions.