Our comments and expectations
External backdrop
External markets are again under pressure amid rising oil prices. The S&P 500 fell by 1.4% yesterday as Brent crude exceeded $109 and is now trading at $112.4. The surge followed Iran naming several energy facilities in the Persian Gulf as potential targets. Earlier, the country stated that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes had hit the giant South Pars gas field, marking an escalation of attacks on energy infrastructure. In addition, the killing of Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, was reported. According to Bloomberg, this significantly worsens the prospects for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve meeting was in focus for U.S. traders. The regulator, as expected, left the rate unchanged, while Powell emphasized during the press conference the importance of maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy. The Fed maintained its projections for a rate cut in 2026 and another cut in 2027, while traders reduced expectations for rate cuts this year. Asian markets are correcting this morning after yesterday’s gains, reacting to the close of U.S. markets. The largest losses are observed in Japanese and Korean markets. S&P 500 futures are currently trading slightly lower by about 0.13%.
KASE Index
The KASE Index rose by 1% yesterday. During the session, quotations climbed to 7,946 points but failed to close at new historical highs. At today’s open, KazMunayGas shares are jumping another 8%, helping the index gain about 0.5%.
Index constituents
Yesterday’s session was positive for KASE as most heavyweight stocks posted gains. However, sentiment on global markets remains unstable, which directly affects Kazatomprom and Kaspi shares, given their correlation with trading results in the U.S. KazMunayGas is rising by 8% amid the continued rally in oil prices. However, we still see speculative risks in buying “here and now,” therefore we keep the local recommendation at “Hold.” At the opening today, Air Astana shares are declining following news that BAE Systems is selling its remaining stake (6.86%) at $5.1 per GDR. Considering yesterday’s closing price of $6.02, this triggered selling pressure in the market. In the medium term, this event is neutral or even positive, as it fully removes uncertainty regarding BAE Systems’ intentions for its remaining stake. We expect an increase in free float and improved liquidity of the stock. The pressure comes primarily from the discount to the market price, which is common practice for such off-market placements. Moreover, historical patterns, including BAE Systems’ previous stake sale, show that prices tend to recover quickly after such events. However, Air Astana is currently under pressure from high oil prices, which may delay the recovery of quotations. The recommended dividend for Halyk Bank shares has also been announced — 30.1 tenge with a record date of April 30.
Currency
The dollar slightly appreciated yesterday to 481.5 tenge. The current attempt to rise is facing resistance from higher oil prices, so today’s result remains modest — 482.5 tenge on the forex market.