Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.9%, continuing its recovery after the latest wave of decline. On Friday, the market saw elevated trading volumes — about 50% above the 12-month average — driven by the expiration of a record volume of options. On the index heatmap, the main gains were concentrated among chipmakers: Nvidia and Broadcom rose by 3–4%, while AMD and Micron gained 6–7%.
The market is now anticipating a Christmas rally, which, according to Citadel, has historically led to an average market increase of 1.3% in 75% of cases. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 52.9 points. This was slightly above November’s reading (51.0) but below the forecast (53.5). It has been reported that the NYSE and Nasdaq will not change their trading schedules on December 24 and 26, despite President Trump’s order to shut down the federal government on those days. December 24 is expected to be a shortened trading session, while December 25 will be a market holiday.
In Europe, the strongest performance was seen in the DAX, which is recovering and attempting to catch up with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index, which has been posting record highs for the second consecutive session. In Asia, markets are showing positive momentum this morning, particularly in Korea and Japan. Oil prices are also rising today, reaching their highest levels since December 12.
Bonds. Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds recovered to 4.15% following the release of consumer sentiment data. Corporate bonds, especially in the high-yield segment, declined.
KASE Index. KASE rose on Friday on increased trading volumes. The main contribution to the growth came from two heavyweights — Kazatomprom and Halyk Bank. As a result, the index broke a three-session losing streak, improved its technical picture, and rebounded from an ascending trend line. At today’s opening, momentum is slowing, with the index correcting by around 0.2%.
Index stocks. On Friday, Kazatomprom shares rose by 4.6% on the local market, catching up with their underperformance relative to the LSE. At the same time, GDRs on the LSE fell by 3.4% on the same day, which is likely to be reflected back on KASE today. It is worth noting that Kazatomprom’s correction occurred against the backdrop of a 2.7% rise in uranium prices on Friday, reaching their highest levels since November 3, and moved contrary to the dynamics of uranium ETFs in the U.S. In this context, we believe there is a high probability of GDR growth in today’s London session.
The second-largest gain was recorded in Halyk Bank shares: GDRs on the LSE continue to rise, setting new highs and potentially testing the Fibonacci resistance level near the round $30 mark in the near future. The formation of resistance is also indicated by a bearish divergence that has appeared on the daily chart of KASE-listed shares. Today’s increase of 2.9% in GDRs and 2.4% in local market shares may point to a recovery wave following the SPO.
Currency. The tenge strengthened today to 515 per U.S. dollar. Given that the dollar’s attempt to recover has failed, we may see sideways movement in the USDKZT chart in the near term.