Halyk Bank is growing after the breakdown of important levels

Our Comments and Expectations

External Background. The S&P 500 once again renewed its all-time highs, gaining 0.3% yesterday. The Nasdaq showed the smallest increase among the “big three” indices, while the Dow Jones posted the largest gain. The small-cap Russell 2000 index jumped 1.9%. Market discussions remained focused on potential rate cuts following the latest inflation report. Scott Bessent stated that the Fed’s rates should be 150–175 basis points lower than current levels, and policymakers could start a rate-cutting cycle with a 50-basis-point reduction next month. In the same interview, he noted that the U.S. is open to discussing with China the use of Nvidia chips, and that he does not support suspending the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly reporting. Trump said he might announce the name of the next Fed Chair “a little earlier than planned” from a shortlist of three or four candidates. He also warned of “very serious consequences” if Vladimir Putin does not agree to a ceasefire deal at Friday’s summit. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX rose by 0.5–0.7%, but both remain within a sideways trading range. This morning, Asian indices are showing moderate declines, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 losing the most at –1.4%. Japan’s 5-year bond auction saw the weakest demand since 2020, and the Bank of Japan’s anti-inflation measures were criticized by Bessent. S&P 500 futures are down 0.14% at the time of writing. Oil is trading at $65.8 this morning. The IEA reports that global oil markets are on track for a record surplus in 2026, forecasting stockpile growth of 2.96 million barrels per day — exceeding even the 2020 average.

Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell after a wave of growth. Corporate bonds rose.

KASE Index. The KASE Index rose 0.4%, once again setting an all-time high. However, growth momentum over the past two sessions has been moderate.

Index Constituents. The index’s rise was largely driven by Halyk Bank shares, which surged 3.5% and showed strong momentum after breaking out of local consolidation. Other stocks posted moderate declines, further indicating a slowdown in market growth dynamics. Besides Halyk Bank, Kaspi shares rose 0.6%. On the LSE, Halyk Bank GDRs showed a similar 3.5% increase, with both securities trading at parity with the current USDKZT rate. Kazatomprom GDRs rose 1.4%, once again testing the $44.5 resistance level. Technical analysis suggests that repeated testing of a single level often leads to its eventual breakout.

Currency. Over the past two sessions, the dollar weakened from 543 to 538 KZT. Losses are minimal at the start of today’s trading. The local support level for the dollar is in the 536.2–536.8 KZT range.