Our Comments and Expectations
External background. On Friday, the S&P 500 climbed to historical highs, then corrected and closed down by –0.3%. The trigger for the swings was North American labor market data. Job growth in the U.S. came in much weaker than expected: only 22k new jobs were created in August, while unemployment rose to 4.3% — the highest since 2021. This strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut at the end of the month: markets began to price in three cuts this year, while Barclays now forecasts cuts at each of the remaining meetings. The initial rally was likely a reaction to the data, but later euphoria shifted into safe-haven assets: the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to 4.09%, and gold hit a new all-time high. Canada also saw job losses: unemployment rose to 7.1%, marking a second consecutive monthly decline in employment; in August the labor market lost 65.5k jobs, exceeding even the most pessimistic forecasts. In Europe, dynamics resembled the U.S.: Stoxx and DAX indices first rose, then slipped into negative territory, while the industrial sector took an additional hit from an unexpected 2.9% drop in German industrial orders in July — the sharpest since January. This morning Asian markets are trading calmly, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.4% after the Prime Minister announced his intention to resign following a second consecutive election defeat. In the commodities market, oil is recovering from Friday’s decline: OPEC+ agreed on a new round of production increases, adding around 137k barrels per day from October. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, this decision could push prices below $60 per barrel.
Bonds. Among corporate bonds, emerging market bonds are showing quite good growth.
KASE Index. On Friday, KASE fell by 0.3%. Halyk Bank replaced BCC as the leader in daily growth, supporting the market amid declines in CCBN shares. On the other hand, the pace of correction seems to be slowing, which may be positive for the market.
Index stocks. Halyk Bank gained 2.5%, moving toward breaking local resistance levels and updating historical highs. Previous highs were at 380 tenge, but resistance may be around 390 tenge. Among GDRs, the largest growth was seen in Kazatomprom — up 4.3%. Other uranium sector stocks showed little reaction to the news that Trump exempted uranium (and a number of other metals) from national tariffs. Kaspi ADS fell by 2.7%, returning to the lows since August 6.
Currency. On Friday, the dollar closed below 536 tenge, confirming the USDKZT’s movement within the channel formed since July’s highs. Today, the tenge continues strengthening, trading at 534.8 per dollar