Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 0.42% yesterday. Two factors were the main positive triggers for the American market. Firstly, the Fed minutes contained rather dovish comments, in connection with which the rate cut at the September meeting is now estimated as a 100% definite event. Several representatives of the regulator at a meeting on July 30-31 recognized the existence of plausible reasons for lowering rates, most considered the move next month quite appropriate, while some noted the risk of a more serious deterioration in the labor market situation. Swap traders are now forecasting a reduction of about 1 percentage point (1%) in 2024. The second event was the announcement of plans by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise the benchmark for total non-agricultural employment by -818,000 by March 2024, which also strengthens the Fed's easing bets in September. The final revision of the benchmarks will be released in February 2025. Today, the market will expect data on initial applications for unemployment benefits. Recall that the last 2 reports caused a positive market reaction. The market expects applications to grow to 232,000.In the European index, the average value is the same as the S&P 500. In Asia, moderate growth has been observed since the morning. On Friday, the Japanese market will be in the focus of investors, as the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, will speak in parliament, where he is expected to discuss with lawmakers the decision to raise interest rates in July. Oil has fallen to lows since August 6, despite the fact that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.65 million barrels last week, to the lowest level since January.
Bonds. There were no big changes in the bond market. US 10-year-olds offer a 3.8% yield to maturity. Corporate bonds continue to grow steadily, especially in emerging markets.
The KASE index. Yesterday's index decreased by 0.3%, which still fits into the framework of a “pause after growth”, since the previously broken resistance levels were not broken through again in the opposite direction.
Index shares. The leader of the decline was Halyk Bank, which lost 2.8% in the local market. Recall that the last report was moderately positive, and theoretically could not be the reason for the decline. On the other hand, given the growth of the securities before the report, it can be assumed that expectations were even more positive than the report showed. In addition, the company did not give a clear answer when and what the second dividend this year will be (and whether it will be at all).There was a smaller decrease on the LSE, by 1.6%. Receipts from Kaspi and Kazatomprom increased by 1.7% and 1.4%. The latter, by the way, met support at $36.2. Kazmunaigas was among the leaders of growth in the local market, which continued its rally. The Issuer's Day is scheduled for tomorrow, August 23 at 15:00, in an online format, where the company's operational and financial results will be discussed.
Currency. The dollar returned to the level of 478.3 tenge, which means a weakening of the impact of the tax period. We continue to monitor any signs of an attempt to break through the 480 tenge level.