Our comments and expectations
Global background. The S&P 500 rose modestly by 0.2% on Thursday, but this was enough for it to reach new record highs. A 10.8% drop in Oracle shares, along with declines in several other major tech companies, offset gains in other sectors. The U.S. financial sector — banks and insurance — performed particularly well; the healthcare and industrial sectors also showed solid growth. As a result, the Nasdaq fell by 0.25%, while the Dow Jones gained 1.3%. In addition to Oracle, Broadcom negatively affected the AI segment. Although its earnings report was decent, CEO Hock Tan said during the earnings call that the company has a $73 billion order backlog for AI-related products, which will be delivered over the next six quarters — a statement that disappointed investors. The stock is down 4.5% in post-market trading. U.S. jobless claims rose last week by the most since the beginning of the pandemic. Options traders are pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, despite the fact that new Fed projections indicate only one. In Europe, indices posted solid gains and remained on an upward trend. According to Bloomberg, Kyiv is facing growing pressure to accept the conditions of the developing peace plan. Oil is trading at $61.6 this morning. The IEA has lowered its forecast for global oil surplus for this year and next — the first downgrade since May — citing rising demand and slowing production.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stood at 4.16% yesterday. Corporate bonds remained neutral.
KASE Index. KASE continued its recovery after the decline in the second half of November. Prices rose by 1%, reaching the level last seen on November 12, driven by banking stocks and the rebound of previously declining names.
Index stocks. Halyk Bank has been actively rising for the fourth session in a row, including another 2.5% gain at the opening today. This growth is fully in line with our expectations earlier this week. Additionally, HSBK shares have indeed started outperforming CCBN, following our comments yesterday about Halyk’s stronger technical setup. Meanwhile, BCC fell by 1.4% yesterday, interrupting its developing upward wave. Today at the open, the stock is up 0.6%, showing early signs of consolidation. KEGOC rose by 1.2% — it has been steadily recovering between October 22 and November 24. From its recent lows, the stock has gained 4.8%. Kaspi also moved higher; however, its trend remains wave-like, alternating between rises and pullbacks. Its volatility is still far below that of Kazatomprom GDRs, which tend to show sharp declines in one session and equally sharp rises in another, sometimes moving in contrast to other uranium companies and ETFs.
Currency. The dollar did not slow down today as we had expected. Instead, it accelerated compared to the previous session right from the opening of trading. The next resistance level for USDKZT is 526 tenge.