Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 once again came under pressure. Quotes fell by 1.7%, reaching the lowest level since September 4 of last year. The trigger was a deterioration in market sentiment due to ineffective negotiations between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump stated that he does not know whether the U.S. is “ready” to work on a deal with Iran after Tehran rejected his proposals. In addition, according to Fars, Iran is drafting legislation that would charge ships for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Until Iran agrees to stop the conflict, the United States will “continue to destroy it,” the U.S. president said. This morning it became known that Trump postponed by 10 days the deadline for reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran. BlackRock executive Rob Kapito stated that investors may be underestimating the risks associated with a war with Iran, warning that oil prices could reach $150 per barrel. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. unemployment benefit claims last week changed little, indicating a low level of layoffs despite new economic difficulties. Initial claims increased by 5,000 to 210,000, in line with expectations. In Europe, indices declined somewhat less — by about 1.1–1.5%. Reports indicate that European lawmakers finally approved a trade agreement with the United States. The agreement will eliminate tariffs on American industrial goods while setting a tariff ceiling of 15% for most EU goods. In Asia this morning, sentiment is moderately mixed, with major indices fluctuating within ±0.5%. Brent crude is trading around $108 per barrel, while futures on the S&P 500 index are showing a 0.5% gain.
KASE Index. Yesterday, the KASE index declined for the third consecutive session, falling slightly below its March lows. However, the overall picture is not yet critical, as the market continues to be supported by horizontal support levels.
Index stocks. The largest decline yesterday was seen in Halyk Bank shares, as the market’s initial reaction to its report was negative. GDRs fell by 2.3% at the opening but eventually closed with a 5.3% gain. As a result, local shares ended up about 3% cheaper than their counterparts on the LSE (considering 40 ordinary shares per GDR). Currently, the stock is showing growth from the lower boundary of its sideways channel and has about 3.5% upside potential toward key resistance levels on the LSE. Kazatomprom shares jumped by 4.1%, while they declined by 2.2% on the LSE. This result was better than that of peers in the uranium sector, as the URA and URNM funds dropped by 4.6–5.5% yesterday. Following the latest report, we raised our target price for the shares to 35,500 tenge, which is 6% below yesterday’s closing price. We assess the report as neutral: revenue remained unchanged due to the absence of enriched uranium sales, while adjusted net profit remained at last year’s level and operating cash flow increased by 57% year-on-year. The key risk is a significant increase in production costs in 2026. At today’s opening, the KASE index is rising by 0.6%, mainly driven by Halyk Bank shares, while remaining in a sideways trend.
Currency. This morning the U.S. dollar is making a modest attempt to strengthen against the tenge. We believe that more significant signals for growth will appear only if the rate consolidates at (or above) the 484 tenge level.