Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose by 0.8% yesterday. Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a positive economic development was the ISM Services PMI report: the February reading came in stronger than expected — the index rose to 56.1 from 53.8 in January, while the market had expected around 53.5. This marks the highest level since July 2022, and the indicator has remained above 50 for the 20th consecutive month, signaling expansion in the services sector. Meanwhile, Donald Trump stated that the United States is doing “very well” in its military campaign against Iran, although the timeline and objectives remain unclear. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the U.S. is moving toward “complete control of Iran’s airspace.” At the same time, Tehran called reports that it had approached the U.S. with a proposal to discuss ending the conflict “a complete lie.” Meanwhile, Scott Bessent said that Donald Trump’s increase in the global tariff from 10% to 15% is likely to take effect this week. According to Bloomberg, the EU has received assurances that it will retain a lower rate. European indices posted even stronger gains than the U.S. yesterday. In Asia, markets are showing positive dynamics this morning — China’s CSI 300 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 are up by 1.1–1.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi, which fell by 12% yesterday, is recovering. Reports indicate that China has asked its largest refineries to suspend exports of diesel fuel and gasoline due to supply disruptions from Iran. The cost of shipping oil via supertankers on the U.S.–China route has jumped to a new record of $29.1 million. Futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.3% this morning. Oil prices are rising today to $84.3 per barrel.
KASE Index. Yesterday, the KASE began the session calmly and from neutral levels but declined by 1% by the end of the session under pressure from external factors. This morning, external sentiment appears to be improving, which may have a positive impact on the local market. Index stocks. KazMunayGas (KMG) unexpectedly became the leader in declines yesterday. This was likely due to profit-taking amid concerns that oil prices might stop rising. However, Brent prices continue their rally due to the lack of vessel movement in the Strait of Hormuz. Shares of Air Astana, Halyk Bank, and KazTransOil also experienced a correction. On Nasdaq, Kaspi shares fell to $73.1, slightly below the downward trendline that had previously been broken. The company has scheduled its annual general meeting for April 15, with approval of quarterly dividends of 850 tenge per share and a record date of April 14. Kazatomprom shares declined by 3.4%, despite uranium companies rising yesterday. Overall, it was disappointing that stocks correlated with the U.S. market did not receive positive momentum from it. At the market open today, KSPI and KZAP shares are down by 1.5–1.7%.
Currency. The tenge is strengthening today against the U.S. dollar to 494.6. Based on the daily candlestick, the level of 493 tenge per dollar appears to act as support.