Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 closed neutral yesterday, remaining under pressure from news headlines. The main issue for the market continues to be the oil situation, which Donald Trump is attempting to address. The positive sentiment from the IMF supporting the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves quickly gave way to market uncertainty. Markets also received little support from reports that Trump is preparing to use authorities accumulated since the Cold War to reopen oil production off the coast of Southern California. In February, U.S. core inflation slowed to 0.2% month-over-month, easing price pressures somewhat. The headline CPI rose by 2.4% year-over-year and by 0.3% compared to the previous month. According to Morgan Stanley economist Michael Gapen, the Federal Reserve will likely resume rate cuts as early as June, although there remains a risk that the next move could be delayed due to an oil shock caused by the war. On Friday, markets will focus on data for the PCE deflator (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index), known as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The market expects the core indicator to rise again by 0.4% in January. This morning, oil prices climbed again to around $100 following reports of Iran attacking tankers in Iraqi waters and fuel storage facilities in Bahrain. There are also reports of oil ports being suspended in Iraq and Oman. At the moment, S&P 500 futures are down by 0.9%.
KASE Index. The KASE index posted a slight gain for the second consecutive session, signaling a possible transition into a sideways trend. At the same time, it is worth noting that the index is currently sitting directly on an upward trendline that has been in place since November 2025. A decline of more than 1% would represent a downward break of this trendline. However, in our view, such a scenario would require stronger negative factors or a prolonged gradual market correction.
Index stocks. Yesterday, the largest gains were recorded in Kazatomprom and Kazakhtelecom shares. Meanwhile, the uranium producer’s shares fell by 3.1% on the LSE, indicating that the stock remains within a wide and volatile sideways trend. As for Kazakhtelecom, the increase looks interesting given the elevated trading volumes and lack of news. It should be noted that the annual general meeting of shareholders is scheduled for April 30, with materials to be published 10 days prior to the meeting. The key resistance level for the stock is around 45,000 tenge, and a breakout above this level could make the shares more attractive for speculative buying. Today, pressure on the local market may come from Halyk Bank, whose GDRs declined by 2.3% on the LSE. The situation here is similar to Kazatomprom, with both stocks trading in wide sideways ranges. It will be interesting to observe how KMG and KazTransOil shares react today to another wave of rising oil prices.
Currency. Yesterday, USDKZT closed with minimal changes. This morning the picture remains calm, with the dollar showing a slight increase of 0.3% to around 492 tenge. For now, the currency pair is fluctuating moderately as the market decides how to react to rising oil prices.