Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 index fell again on Friday, reaching last year’s August lows amid a new wave of rising oil prices. Currently, the main index is down 8.7% from the January 27 peak, while the Nasdaq is down slightly over 11%. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds rose to July last year’s levels, indicating deteriorating expectations regarding a reduction in the base rate. Brent oil prices surged to $112 per barrel after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and metallurgical facilities on Friday, and Tehran responded with a strike near the Persian Gulf. These events occurred just hours after President Donald Trump postponed the deadline by another 10 days for Iran to agree to resume operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. fell to a three-month low in March, while inflation expectations for the next year rose due to rising gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict. Economists raised their 2026 U.S. inflation forecast to 3.1% due to fuel price growth, which was also confirmed by the Fed’s Barkin, stating the war threatens to intensify already high inflationary pressure. The impact on GDP is assessed as limited — average growth is expected at 2.3% this year. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX indices lost 1–1.4%. In Asia, markets show negative sentiment again in the morning — Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Korea’s Kospi fall 2.8–2.9%. S&P 500 index futures were negative early morning but rose up to 0.3% at times. Brent oil futures continue to rise, reaching $116 per barrel in the morning.
KASE Index. On Friday, the KASE index increased by 0.3%, breaking a three-session consecutive decline. However, the external environment again seems unlikely to support growth for papers correlated with global indices.
Index Stocks. On Friday, shares of Halyk Bank and, unexpectedly, Kcell increased in the local market. Judging by the daily candle, Kcell quotes reached 3460 KZT during the session, showing almost 6.5% growth. However, at market opening today, we see a correction, which may offset the growth attempt. Similar resistance for Halyk Bank shares is observed in GDR quotes — they corrected by 2.8% on Friday, preventing global depositary receipts from continuing Thursday’s confident growth. Nevertheless, HSBK shares are not falling today and even show 0.4% growth. On Nasdaq, Kaspi ADS fell 4.4% on Friday, indicating another failed attempt of these papers to show a growth wave. On KASE, shares are down 2.8%. Among foreign papers, only Kazatomprom GDR increased. At Friday session close, KASE shares traded 2.8% below GDR, giving them some growth potential at today’s opening. Among growth leaders today is KMG, although the rebound attempt appears modest.
Currency. The dollar rose on Friday; however, today the tenge is recovering lost positions. As a result, USDKZT is momentarily at Thursday’s session close level.