Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 remains neutral. Yesterday, quotes fell by 0.2% amid expectations of Friday's labor market report and unnerving geopolitical factors in the Middle East. The VIX reached 20.48 points. Some relief was provided by data on the services sector, which grew at the fastest pace in September since February 2023. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended September 28, 2024, increased by 6,000, to 225,000. This is more than the revised figure of the previous week, which was 219,000. As for today's Non-farm payrolls report, markets expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2% in September and the number of jobs to grow by 150,000. JPMorgan forecasts a figure of 125,000.Austan Goolsbee of the Fed reiterated that US interest rates should be "significantly" lowered over the next year. There have been reports that a strike by port workers could be resolved by Monday. Meanwhile, oil jumped 5.2% to $77.7, breaking through its 50-day moving average. Joe Biden added fuel to the fire by giving an ambiguous answer to the question about US support for the attack on Iranian oil facilities. The President said that the issue was "under discussion." At the same time, it is worth noting that the volume of supplies from Libya has returned to the market, which has completely resumed oil production. In Europe, indexes are declining faster than in the United States. Stoxx 600 and DAX lost 0.8-0.9%. Reuters reports that today the European Union will vote against the imposition of duties on Chinese electric vehicles. In Turkey, inflation in September was 49.4%, which turned out to be less than 52% in August, but unexpectedly higher than forecast values. In the morning, Hong Kong's Hang Seng has been growing by 1.75% in Asian markets, which is again higher than the rest of the leading indices. However, there is a pause in growth on the chart now. Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds rose markedly yesterday, reaching 3.85% and breaking through the 50-day moving average. Corporate bonds declined. The KASE. KASE index closed with a slight increase of 0.2%. The main driving force in the market was Kaspi shares, which resisted the decline of Kazakhtelecom and Air Astana. Index shares. Kaspi on KASE increased by 3.5%, thereby pushing off from the lows since April this year. On the other hand, there was a decline on the Nasdaq, which inappropriately slowed down the growth of ADS. So far, a loss of 2.1% is not critical, but another decline will return quotes to local consolidation again – we are closely watching the dynamics today, which may be volatile due to the report on the labor market in the United States. Kazatomprom was among the growth leaders on the LSE, and here we see a classic rebound from the long-term upward trend line. This growth is still local and does not give confident signals for further growth, however, it may be promising for the medium-term dynamics of securities. Kazakhtelecom was among the leaders of the decline at KASE, which dropped to the level of 36700 tenge during the session. Currency. As we assumed yesterday, the growth of the dollar slowed down and in the morning it is trading at 482 tenge.