Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 fell by 0.5% yesterday. The Nasdaq lost 1%, indicating a negative impact from large technology companies on the session’s performance. Bloomberg reports that the U.S. will suspend visa processing for applicants from 75 countries seeking to live and work in the country permanently. Citi warned that the credit card fee cap proposed by Donald Trump could trigger a slowdown in economic growth. Fed official Neel Kashkari stated that the Department of Justice investigation into Jerome Powell “concerns monetary policy.” Oil prices rose to $66.8 yesterday but reversed sharply during the session after Trump said that killings in Iran during the suppression of protests had stopped. This morning, Brent futures are down 1.2%. OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027, which could potentially tighten supply in the market. At the same time, Bloomberg NEF estimates that Brent could reach $91 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year if the situation in Iran escalates and leads to supply disruptions. Asian markets are trading moderately this morning, with only Korea’s Kospi showing significant growth. S&P 500 futures are up 0.15%.
KASE Index. The KASE index declined by 0.6% yesterday. A support level formed by the October highs lies slightly below, around 7,215 points, creating a base for the market. In addition, gains in Kazatomprom and Kaspi shares on Western markets should support the index in today’s session, keeping it within a local consolidation range.
Index stocks. The largest decline on the local market yesterday was seen in Kaspi shares, following the previous performance of its ADS. At the same time, Nasdaq-listed shares rose by 2.5%, rebounding from support levels and partially improving the technical picture. However, the ADS have not yet formed clear bullish signals and still face resistance from the medium-term downward trendline. A similar situation is observed in Kazatomprom: GDR prices rose by 3.5%, preventing further downside movement, but the close occurred exactly at the Fibonacci resistance level, making it premature to speak of a sustainable continuation of growth. The market is likely to provide clarity on this issue during the current session. Among GDRs, the largest decline was recorded in Halyk Bank shares, which moved outside the sideways consolidation range. This is a locally negative signal, but we continue to monitor the stock for a potential recovery. The long-term and medium-term outlook remains positive, with $30 still acting as the key resistance level. On the local market, Kazakhtelecom continued its slow growth, Air Astana shares remain under pressure, while KEGOC showed its first pause after falling 5.2% over six sessions.
Currency. USDKZT is reacting to lower oil prices with a moderate strengthening of the dollar, reaching 510.5 tenge today. The USDRUB pair is trading unchanged, while the DXY index has been consolidating for the past four sessions.