Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% yesterday. The main pressure factor was the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf and the rise in oil prices above $90 per barrel. The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month: US forces struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded with attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. Together with Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week, the rise in oil pushed up the yield on 10-year US Treasuries — the figure rose to 4.76%, the highest since January 2025. Next, on Friday, investors are awaiting the August labor market report, which will likely confirm overall stability in the labor market, allowing the Fed to fight inflation in a more targeted manner. Investors will also watch whether September confirms its status as the weakest month of the year for the market: over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has declined by an average of 0.8% during this period versus an average gain of 0.9% in the other 11 months. This morning in Asia, sentiment is again relatively moderate. Oil is trading at $91.8 per barrel at the moment, while S&P 500 futures remain neutral.
KASE Index. KASE fell 0.1% yesterday. We previously noted declines in commodity prices for gold and uranium, which could have negatively affected the respective stocks. In addition to Kazatomprom and Solidcore, shares of Halyk Bank and Kcell were also in the red. On the other hand, the market was supported by KMG, KEGOC, and BCC shares.
Index stocks. The London Stock Exchange was closed yesterday, so Kazatomprom and Halyk Bank shares traded without reference to the Western venue. Kazatomprom predictably declined, as uranium has been correcting for the third session in a row, although it is worth noting that yesterday’s 0.17% drop in futures was noticeably milder than the 1% fall the day before. Halyk Bank fell 0.8% and slowed its recovery after slightly exceeding the 390 tenge level. Despite this, we still expect the slow recovery to continue after the dividend gap. KEGOC rose 0.8%, marking the seventh consecutive session of gains. Quotes are recovering after the drop on August 17, when Almaty and southern Kazakhstan were left without power due to an accident on the part of the Central Asian Unified Power System. We believe that quotes will gradually rise over the next month and a half until the record date for the payment of dividends for the first half of 2026, which usually takes place closer to mid-November. We also remind that after a strong second-quarter report, the shares currently have the highest upside potential among all the index stocks we cover. KMG shares rose 0.5% amid higher oil prices. At the same time, the quotes themselves remain in a stable — one could even say linear — trend of slow growth. A slight pickup is also observed in BCC shares, but quotes are still below recent highs around 4870 tenge.
Currency. The dollar continued to weaken against the tenge after an unsuccessful test of the 466 tenge level. At the moment, USDKZT is falling to 459 tenge and is again heading toward the support level in the 455–457 tenge area.
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