Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. Global markets resumed sell-offs amid ongoing military actions in the Middle East. Yesterday, the S&P 500 declined by 1.5%. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed. He warned that Iran could open additional fronts if the conflict continues. In response, the U.S. plans to issue temporary permits allowing foreign tankers to transport fuel between American ports. At the close of yesterday’s trading session, oil prices were above $100 per barrel for Brent and nearly $96 per barrel for WTI. Donald Trump took a stance negative for the market, stating that eliminating the threat of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons “is of much greater interest and importance” than oil prices. Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak ($147.5) if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain low until March. Financial sector stocks fell after Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater limited withdrawals from private credit funds. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds rose to its highest level since February 4, reflecting worsening market sentiment regarding prospects for a rate cut due to expensive oil. Next week, the market expects the base rate to remain unchanged, while Trump is once again intensifying pressure on Powell. In Asia this morning, negative trends are also visible — Nikkei 225 and Kospi are down by 1.2–1.7%. Futures on the S&P 500 index are trading neutral. Copper and gold are also in negative territory.
KASE Index. Yesterday, the KASE index succumbed to negative external sentiment and fell by 0.5%. However, this was not enough to change the technical picture, and the index remains in sideways consolidation. At today’s market open, the situation remains unchanged as quotes stay neutral.
Index stocks. Yesterday, almost all stocks declined, which is typical in situations of external pressure. In such cases there is usually no clear underperformer, and most securities show moderate correction. The largest decline was seen in Kazatomprom shares, which is linked to ongoing volatility in global markets affecting its GDRs. Uranium funds URNM and URA fell by 0.6–1.2% yesterday, while Kazatomprom shares on the local market traded 1.4% above the GDR price. Kaspi ADS fell by 2.8%, worsening the technical outlook and returning the stock to a downtrend, erasing the positive momentum that followed its earnings report and announcement of resumed dividend payments. The biggest gain was recorded in Halyk Bank GDRs, although it did not significantly change the chart dynamics. On the local market, KZTO shares declined by 1.2%, ceasing to react to oil prices. However, at today’s opening we see renewed activity in KMG shares, which may signal a resumption of growth.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar closed slightly above 490 tenge. During the session it rose to 493 tenge and dipped to 488.4 tenge, but for the second session in a row the close was near neutral. At today’s opening the picture remains unchanged, with USDKZT trading around 491 tenge.