External Background.
Yesterday, U.S. stocks showed a decent recovery. The Nasdaq index rose by 1.6%, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.1%. Major companies such as Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla saw good recoveries. Nvidia also grew by 4.8% after reports emerged about its work on new AI chips for the Chinese market that will comply with current U.S. export control regulations. The European Stoxx 600 index recovered by 1% after a continuous decline throughout the past week. The technology sector in Europe also performed well, rising by 1.8%. Additionally, stocks with significant markets in China saw notable increases after unexpected interest rate cuts in China—the first since August last year—signaling the authorities' intentions to stimulate the economy. Asian markets are showing mixed movements this morning. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index is slightly falling, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 is up by 0.1%. The Chinese CSI 300 is down more than 1%. Oil prices fell by 0.4% yesterday. Morgan Stanley analysts expect an oversupply of oil next year.
Bonds.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose slightly yesterday from 4.24% to 4.25%.
KASE Index.
On Monday, the KASE index showed a neutral result, declining slightly and continuing to be in a local sideways movement. However, yesterday's drop in Kaspi.kz ADRs in the U.S. will likely negatively impact today's results.
Index Stocks.
The strongest performers on Monday were the shares of KazMunayGas and Kaspi.kz, both showing a synchronous increase of 0.8%. KMG partially recovered from the significant drop on Friday; however, a quick recovery remains uncertain, and the main scenario is still a sideways trend in the coming weeks. Kaspi.kz shares likely rose in anticipation of the financial report for the second quarter, which was released after the KASE closed. Despite a 27.5% year-over-year increase and an 8.6% quarter-over-quarter rise in quarterly net profit, the ADRs on Nasdaq fell by 5.3%, which will undoubtedly negatively impact the stock today. A decline in quotes to 64,000 tenge can be expected. Nevertheless, Kaspi.kz ADRs have maintained an upward trend and are likely to show recovery in the coming days. The company's directors also proposed dividends of 850 tenge per share for the quarter, with an ex-dividend date of August 16. Kazakhtelecom shares fell further by 1.8%, dipping slightly below 38,000 tenge, as we anticipated. The main medium-term scenario remains a slow decline toward 36,000 tenge, where a significant horizontal level is located.
Currency.
Yesterday, the dollar continued to decline in currency trading. The last transaction price fell by 2.09 tenge, reaching 473.3 tenge. Although trading volume decreased, it was the second-largest in July.