External Background.
Yesterday, U.S. stocks continued to rise amid increasing chances of Trump winning a second presidential term, which is expected to ease market regulations. The Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 indices all rose by 0.3-0.5%. According to bookmakers, the probability of Trump's victory increased from 60% to 67%. The head of the Federal Reserve also spoke yesterday, stating that the economy may avoid a recession, and the latest data shows progress in reducing inflation to the target of 2%. Goldman Sachs shares rose by 2.6% after the quarterly profit doubled. The European Stoxx 600 index sharply declined by 1% amid falling luxury goods and utility sectors following weak reports from certain companies. The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell by 1.4% in the morning, while Korean, Japanese, and Chinese indices showed slight increases. Oil prices dipped by 0.14%, falling below $85, while gold prices continued to rise due to expectations of monetary policy easing.
Bonds.
The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes showed a slight increase on Monday, rising from 4.19% to 4.23%.
KASE Index.
The KASE index showed a neutral result on Monday amid slight declines in several stocks and a decent increase of 0.8-1.1% in the shares of BCC, Kcell, and Kazatomprom.
Index Stocks.
BCC shares attempted to break through the psychological level of 2,000 tenge for the third trading day in a row. Yesterday, the stocks reached a price of 2,050 tenge but were pushed back down to 2,000 tenge. A similar scenario was observed last Thursday and Friday. Kcell shares showed a slight recovery on increased volumes after three consecutive days of decline. However, the prices could not return above 2,950 tenge, and the scenario of a decline towards 2,720 tenge remains relevant unless the stocks recover to the aforementioned level today. Air Astana shares continue to decline, falling another 1% on KASE, while the GDRs on LSE increased in price by 1.5%, thereby widening the discount on KASE to 3.7%. Kazakhtelecom shares have been declining for the third day in a row, which, however, fits into the recent upward trend. If we see growth today, the shares could try once again to surpass the 40,000 tenge mark. Otherwise, the decline may continue, with prices looking towards 38,000 tenge. Among individual news, we note the long-awaited publication of Kazakhstan's GDP growth rate, which for the first half of the year was 3.3%, significantly lower than the growth rate of 5.3% last year.
Currency.
Yesterday, the dollar fell to 470.5 tenge during trading against the backdrop of news about an additional sale of $970 million from the National Fund to purchase shares of Kazatomprom. Nevertheless, the decline was bought back, and the exchange rate reached 473.29 tenge by the end of the day. The effect of the stock sale on the exchange rate will likely be gradual and will become noticeable along with currency sales for regular transfers from the National Fund.