External Background:
The S&P 500 had a choppy session yesterday and closed just slightly above the previous close. Notable gains were seen in Amazon (+2.2%), CRM (+4%), and Adobe (+3.4%). Buyers showed more interest in the bond market, which rose following the release of macroeconomic statistics. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for last week increased to 233,000, with expectations at 236,000. Continuing claims rose by 18,000. Despite the mixed figures, this report, combined with news of declining orders and shipments of certain business equipment and purchases of new homes, heightened dovish expectations from the Fed. Moreover, this influx of data came before the release of an important report on American personal expenditures (the Fed's favorite indicator), further amplifying the effect. Economists expect that the PCE deflator slowed to 2.6% year-over-year last month, down from 2.8%, marking the lowest rate since March 2021. Swap markets are pricing in about 45 basis points of easing in 2024, or roughly two rate cuts. Meanwhile, Europe showed negative dynamics. The Stoxx 600 fell by 0.43% and dropped below its 50-day moving average. The DAX rose slightly, while the British FTSE 100 showed a decline of 0.55%. Asian markets are trading moderately higher, up to 0.5%. Among commodity products, both gold and uranium rose.
Bonds:
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell yesterday, although it did not fully retrace the rise from the previous session. Corporate bonds were neutral.
KASE Index:
The KASE rose by 0.8% yesterday, reaching a new historical high. From a technical perspective, this represents a breakout from a sideways trend and serves as a clear signal to conclude the summer stagnation period. However, there are still some concerning aspects.
Index Stocks:
The largest growth was once again observed from Kaspi. Conversely, its quotes on the NYSE fell, failing to break resistance levels at April highs, which was significant. It appears that the KASE quotes are rising due to the weakening of the tenge and the outlook for ADS, whereas we did not see a breakthrough at a critical level on the larger exchange. The second-largest increase was from the National Bank (+1.2%). Similarly to Kaspi, HSBK GDRs did not break through key levels yesterday, in this case, the 50-day moving average. This indicates that despite the KASE index reaching new highs, there were no strong changes among yesterday's leaders in the technical picture. Nevertheless, we do not view this as a negative sign and still expect a market revival in July-August.
Currency:
This morning, the tenge is weakening again, breaking through the resistance level of 468 and heading towards 470.9 per dollar. This is a negative sign, indicating that the resistance did not hold back the influx of tenge sellers. However, it is worth noting that a descending divergence is forming on the daily chart.еся заявки увеличились на 18 000. Несмотря на неоднозначность цифр, данный отчет в купе с новостью снижения заказов, поставок определенного бизнес-оборудования и покупок нового жилья, усилило голубиные ожидания со стороны ФРС. К тому же такая порция данных перед публикацией важного отчета по личным расходам американцев (любимый индикатор ФРС) только усилило эффект. Экономисты ожидают, что дефлятор PCE в прошлом месяце замедлился до с 2,8% 2,6% в годовом исчислении, что является самым низким показателем с марта 2021 года. Рынки свопов закладывают в цены смягчение примерно на 45 базисных пунктов в 2024 году, или примерно два сокращения. В Европе, тем временем, была замечена негативная динамика. Stoxx 600 снизился на 0,43% и оказался ниже 50-дневной скользящей средней. DAX чуть вырос, но британский FTSE 100 показал -0,55%. Азиатские рынки с утра торгуются в умеренном плюсе до 0,5%. Из сырьевых товаров выросло золото и уран.