Our Comments and Expectations
External Background: During the New Year's holidays (January 2–3), the S&P 500 index increased by 0.6%. On January 3, after five consecutive sessions of decline, the leading U.S. index added 1.26%, returning to its 50-day moving average. Nvidia rose by 4.45%, and Tesla by 8.2%, following news that electric vehicle sales in the U.S. increased by 12% in Q4, bringing the annual total to a record 1.3 million. Tom Barkin from the Federal Reserve stated that the current level of interest rates remains restrictive enough to bring down inflation in 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. production grew at a moderate pace in the final month of 2024. The ISM Manufacturing Index reached 49.3, surpassing expectations but remaining below 50, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 increased by 0.7%, although it remained slightly below its 50-day moving average. This morning, Asian indices are showing growth, with Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Kospi (+1.8%) rising, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 and Japan's Nikkei 225 are down. Also, the official exchange rate of the Chinese yuan dropped to 7.3 per dollar, which could be a step toward increasing China's currency pressure on U.S. products. Oil saw a significant increase after breaking through a local triangle formation — Brent prices are currently at $76.6.
Bonds: The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds increased, but overall, it remains in local consolidation. High-yield U.S. bonds are attempting a hesitant bounce, while bonds from emerging markets are showing more stable dynamics.
KASE Index: KASE opened 2025 on a positive note. At one point, the index rose to 5632 points, which would mark a new historical high (on a closing basis) if the market doesn't retreat downward during the session.
Stocks in the Index: Positive winds are coming today from the London Stock Exchange. During the holidays, the GDRs of the National Bank of Kazakhstan rose by 5.2%, breaking through key resistance levels of $19.5 and $20. Since the market opened, local quotes have risen by 5.3%, immediately recovering the gap. Kaspi also rose in the U.S., but without significant breakouts of resistance levels. The stock still has some room for local growth before it starts testing the 50-day moving average and the medium-term downward trendline. A similar situation is observed with Kazatomprom — a 3% increase allowed it to return above $37.8, but there have been no significant changes in the technical picture. We also note that BCC is in the process of forming a rebound and continuing the long-term rally. Rising oil prices could positively affect KMG.
Currency: Over the weekend, there was a sharp spike in the Russian ruble to 114 (at one point reaching 110) per dollar due to low liquidity amid Russia's holidays. Meanwhile, morning trading on KASE shows that the dollar continues to hold around 525 tenge, which automatically reduces the ruble's value to 4.8 tenge. We believe that only the rise in oil prices is currently supporting the tenge, while all other external factors are creating strong pressure, enough to break the 525 tenge mark. In January, the National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to sell $750–850 million from the National Fund.