Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. U.S. markets were closed on Friday, while weekly performance remained positive. The S&P 500 gained 0.9% last week after rising 0.65% the week before.
A key positive factor for investors was the signing of a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran, as well as the decline in Brent crude prices below $80 per barrel.
However, negotiations on a permanent agreement, scheduled to take place in Switzerland on Friday, were postponed. Reports indicate that the delay was caused by clashes between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group that occurred overnight in Lebanon.
Shortly thereafter, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire. Iran had made a ceasefire in Lebanon a condition of its preliminary agreement with the United States.
Bloomberg analysts raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,716 points amid declining geopolitical risks and improved corporate earnings expectations. This implies upside potential of nearly 3% from the latest close and approximately 13% since the beginning of the year.
European markets traded relatively quietly.
This morning, reports indicate that the United States and Iran made progress in negotiations in Switzerland, agreeing on a framework for further technical consultations and establishing a communication channel aimed at preventing incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
S&P 500 futures are down 0.16% this morning.
In Asia, China's CSI 300 is leading gains with an increase of 2.2%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 1.6%.
This week, investors will be closely watching U.S. consumer spending data.
KASE Index. Trading on KASE remains subdued. On Friday, turnover in KASE Index constituents fell to KZT 349 million, the lowest level since April 28, 2025.
If the index continues to trade within its current narrow range, it could reach the trendline connecting recent lows with those recorded in November within the next three to four sessions, leading to a test of key support levels.
Index constituents. Kazatomprom shares delivered the strongest performance on Friday.
Nevertheless, this did not alter the broader picture, as both the stock and the index remain in a triangular consolidation pattern.
On the London Stock Exchange, Kazatomprom’s GDRs declined by 1.7% on Friday, although this also did not materially change the technical outlook.
At present, the stock is supported by its 200-day moving average near $68, while upside movement is constrained by the 50-day and 100-day moving averages in the $74–75 range.
On KASE, Kazatomprom shares are up 0.8% at today’s market open.
The rise in HSBK shares and the decline in KSPI shares did not significantly alter their overall trading patterns.
The weakest performer was Solidcore, whose shares fell 2.1%, marking a third consecutive session of declines on AIX.
Gold is recovering part of its earlier losses today, although it has yet to provide clear bullish signals.
Currency. The U.S. dollar is trading slightly above KZT 487 this morning.
The USD/KZT pair has now remained in a consolidation phase for nine consecutive trading sessions.