Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 fell another 0.2% yesterday, although it tried to stage a rebound during the session. Notably, the market was being pulled higher by technology and mega-cap stocks. Oil rose to nearly $90 per barrel of Brent, thereby breaking above the 50- and 100-day moving averages. In addition, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen threatened to block Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea. This week investors are awaiting earnings reports from mega-cap companies, which could be either a positive or a destabilizing factor for the market. Tesla and Alphabet report on Wednesday, and next week — Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple and Amazon.com. In Europe, the UK’s FTSE 100 posted the biggest decline yesterday. This morning in Asia, indices are showing solid gains: China’s CSI 300 is up 2.9%, while the Nikkei 225 and Kospi are rebounding by 3.3–3.6%. The mainland China tech-focused index jumped more than 7%. Oil has stalled today and is trading slightly below $90. Iran said intermediaries are staying in touch and discussing proposals to ease the fighting, and Reuters reported a proposal to pause strikes for 10 days. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% at the moment.
KASE Index. For KASE, the backdrop today is moderately positive. Yesterday, GDRs did not show positive dynamics, but today they may rise at the open of the London session.
Index stocks. In the local market yesterday, Halyk Bank shares posted the largest gain, but the stock began to slow as it approached the 390 tenge resistance level. Thus, on the LSE the GDRs failed to break above the $33 resistance level, but closed the session at $31.75. Nevertheless, we believe this is only the beginning and quotes may continue to rise into the August EGM and the approval of dividends. Kazatomprom shares were second in gains, although the chart still shows a clear local downtrend. Air Astana GDRs reached their highest levels since May 12. On KASE, the shares are at their highest since April 21. Today on KASE, Halyk Bank shares show the biggest decline (-1.5%), while Kaspi and Air Astana show the biggest gains (+0.8%).
Currency. No significant changes are observed on the USDKZT chart — the dollar is trading around 470 tenge today. The ruble is at 78.9 per dollar and continues to weaken.