October 2026. Surprise: Forecast Cut to 9%
Overview of Inflation in Kazakhstan
12 November 2026, 13:59
● Annual inflation slowed from 9.3% in September to 9.2% in October, driven mainly by food.
● Food posted the lowest October monthly inflation since 2011 on the back of weak meat price growth and cheaper sugar.
● Non-food inflation also contributed to the slowdown, thanks to gasoline and pharmaceuticals.
● Services had the expected negative impact due to last year’s low base, but it was weaker than anticipated.
● Inflation in Russia and the eurozone accelerated in October, and the trading-partner average reached its highest level since June 2025.
● The FX channel remains weak despite a slight depreciation of the tenge against the currency basket.
● We cut our end-2026 inflation forecast from 9.5% to 9.0% and keep our end-2027 forecast at 7.8%.
Details are available in the PDF review.