Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 was able to close at new historical highs yesterday and show the 39th record high this year. Despite the sales at the end of the session before last, asset managers expressed a positive market-wide position with a 0.5% reduction in the base rate. Apparently, the negative excitement of the first session after the decline passed and yesterday investors began to buy risk – shares in the technology sector rose noticeably and declined in the defensive. In addition, the growth was supported by data on the labor market, which showed a decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits to the lowest level since May. Today, markets are waiting for the expiration of a large volume of market options (estimated at 5.1 trillion USD), which is called “triple witchcraft" among investors. In Europe, quotes also rose, the Stoxx 600 gained 1.4%, and the German DAX closed at historic highs. The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at 5%, and the bank's governor, Andrew Bailey, warned investors that he would not rush to ease policy. In the morning, the Asian markets are in an upbeat mood, Japan's Nikkei 225 is adding 1.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is 1.1%. The Bank of Japan has kept the cost of borrowing unchanged at 0.25%, which is a sign that it is in no hurry to raise it again. Commodities are also in the black, with oil trading just below $75 per barrel of Brent in the morning.
Bonds. An increase in risk appetite raised the yield on 10-year US government bonds to 3.74%. After Wednesday's decline, corporate bonds showed growth again.
The KASE. KASE index rose 0.2% yesterday, showing the third consecutive session of growth. However, some securities have distinguished themselves by their rather high volatility.
Index shares. The main event of yesterday evening was the fall of Kaspi securities on NASDAQ. Quotes lost 16.1% on fairly high volumes, and fell to 27% during the session. The reason was a short recommendation and a report by Culper Research, where the company stated that the issuer “systematically misled American investors and regulators with its repeated statements that it has no ties with Russia.” Fintech immediately denied these statements and called the report “inaccurate, misleading and distorting the essence of their business.” Lomtadze commented on the report as "a typical attack by speculators." The hourly chart shows that ADS began to be bought after 21:00. For our part, we believe that attempts to buy securities are now speculative in nature and have certain risks, but they are far from meaningless, since we evaluate securities Kaspi.kz much higher than the closing price, or rather at $133 per paper. Another interesting event was the rebound in Air Astana shares, hints of which we have repeatedly noted in previous reviews. The only drop in the tar in the current situation is the GDR, which has not yet broken through the resistance level of the 50-day moving average.
Currency. The USDKZT continues to decline quite slowly towards its 50-day moving average, which is at around 478.1 tenge.