Our Comments and Expectations
External Background: U.S. markets continued their growth yesterday, largely driven by the technology sector. The S&P 500 rose by 2%, while Nasdaq increased by 2.8%, reflecting the stronger growth of the mentioned sector. Trump also stated that negotiations between the U.S. and China are currently underway, thereby refuting China’s previous claims that no negotiations were taking place. Additionally, yesterday’s labor market data showed resilience. Unemployment claims rose slightly, and orders for durable goods increased by 9.2% in March. It’s worth noting that after the market closed, Google reported earnings, surpassing analysts’ expectations for revenue and profit. The company also announced a share buyback, which led to a nearly 5% increase in stock prices after the close of trading. S&P 500 futures are showing a 0.3% increase this morning but have approached a resistance line. European indices also showed growth, but it was less significant due to mixed earnings reports from various companies. Futures are currently gaining: Stoxx 600 is up by 0.4%, and DAX is up by 0.3%. In Asia, indices are also showing positive growth this morning: Hang Seng is up by 1.4%, and Nikkei 225 is up by 1.8%. Oil is up by 0.8% and trading at $66.1 per barrel. The increase is happening without any major news, but a slight drop in the dollar index has contributed to this growth.
Bonds: The yield on 10-year bonds decreased from 4.39% to 4.32%. Bond prices continue to move along with stocks.
KASE Index: The KASE index closed up by 0.4% yesterday, although at one point it rose by nearly 0.8%. The index managed to update its local highs and is likely to continue further today given the positive global market backdrop.
Index Stocks: The biggest growth yesterday was seen in Kazakhtelecom's stocks, which rose to nearly 51,000 tenge, updating recent January highs and moving closer to historical peaks, driven by the expectation of special dividends. Kazatomprom’s stock also continued to rise, with its GDRs on LSE increasing by 3.2%. As a result, in the last two days, the GDRs have rebounded by 11%, and as noted yesterday, this is likely the start of a new growth wave within the downward channel. BCC shares fell another 1.6%, showing a second consecutive day of decline, likely marking the start of another downward wave within the rising channel, as has happened three times before. Notably, yesterday’s 1.7% rise in the National Bank's GDRs is expected to lead to further growth in stock prices today.
Currency: The tenge has strengthened against the dollar for the third consecutive day, driven by a decrease in overall external pressure. The USDKZT exchange rate dropped to 516.01, the best level since April 10. The ruble weakened slightly yesterday, allowing the tenge to appreciate against the ruble to 6.24.