Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday’s session was successful for both equities and commodity markets. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% as investors sought to capitalize on the end of the government shutdown. The U.S. Senate approved a temporary funding measure to end the 41-day work stoppage, with government operations expected to resume on Wednesday. President Donald Trump supported the bipartisan agreement, stating that government operations would quickly restart. In Europe, results were similar: the Stoxx 600 rose 1.42%, and the FTSE 100 reached new highs. In Asia this morning, mixed dynamics were observed: Korea is up amid the ongoing AI rally, while China and Hong Kong show slight declines. S&P 500 futures are down 0.12%, indicating a cooling of yesterday’s positive momentum. On the commodity market, a spike was recorded: oil rose slightly and is trading at $63.8 amid concerns about an oversupply.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declined slightly, while corporate bond prices showed growth.
KASE Index. The KASE index increased by 0.7% and continues to hold positions near the lower bounds of the sideways trend. Previous session underperformers, Kazatomprom and Kaspi.kz, emerged as leaders this time, although they again showed high trading volatility.
Index Stocks. Kazatomprom surged 12.6% on the LSE. Technically, there are no major changes – quotes remain in a wide sideways channel between $50 and $58.4. On KASE, we expect additional growth today, as the stocks closed yesterday at 2.2% below their GDR price. Kaspi rose 2.3% on KASE and 3.3% on Nasdaq. It can be said that the local market growth was an “advance” before the report, while Nasdaq reflected the market’s actual reaction to a moderately positive report with improved forecasts. The company’s interest income in Q3 2025 reached a record 429 billion KZT, up 51% YoY and 13% QoQ. The largest growth in quarterly revenue came from the Marketplace segment (+207% YoY), largely due to the inclusion of the Turkish marketplace Hepsiburada. Quarterly interest expenses, for the first time in a long period, grew faster than interest income — 55% YoY, indicating rising deposit rates. As a result, Kaspi.kz’s quarterly net profit was 278 billion KZT, up 1.3% YoY and 7.5% QoQ. Additionally, the company announced a new $100 million share buyback program. Today, the stock’s opening reaction is very moderate – only +0.6%. Theoretically, this can be attributed to the high stock price before the ADS.
Currency. The dollar is trading at 525 KZT today. On the daily chart, an upward divergence has formed, which may provide another small wave of tenge appreciation before correcting. This increasingly supports the view that the dollar may start rising in the second half of the current month as the effects of the tax period begin to fade.