Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 closed flat after recovering from a notable decline at the market open. Once again, the largest losses were recorded among mega-cap stocks. Apple posted the steepest decline, falling 6.1% after raising prices for its Mac computers and iPads.
At the same time, semiconductor stocks advanced, supported by Micron's strong guidance, while the industrial and healthcare sectors also finished in positive territory.
Among the positive economic developments, consumer spending data showed an acceleration in May despite elevated inflation, indicating that U.S. consumers are overcoming the economic effects of the conflict with Iran.
Another report showed that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, exceeding previous estimates.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined slightly to 4.39%, while yields on the more Fed-sensitive 2-year Treasuries fell for a third consecutive session.
European markets performed notably better, with major indices rising by 0.7–1.0%.
However, sentiment in global markets has turned negative again this morning. South Korea's Kospi plunged 5.8% and was halted for the second time this week due to excessive volatility.
It is worth recalling that the Korean market is often viewed as a proxy for investor sentiment toward the technology and artificial intelligence sectors.
One of the negative factors was a report suggesting that OpenAI may postpone its IPO until 2027, which could indicate growing uncertainty about market conditions.
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 4.15%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 1.8%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 3%.
Oil prices are down 1.6% this morning, with Brent crude trading at $73.8 per barrel.
S&P 500 futures are currently down 0.27%.
KASE Index. The KASE Index continues to trade sideways, consolidating within a triangular pattern. Yesterday, the market attempted to post stronger gains, but the session ultimately closed near the opening level.
Index constituents. The external backdrop for KASE has once again turned negative this morning. The selloff across Asian and emerging markets may put pressure on GDRs and ADSs today.
At the market open, Halyk Bank and Kazatomprom shares led the declines.
Halyk Bank's GDRs on the London Stock Exchange tested their 200-day moving average once again yesterday but failed to break below it, which is a positive signal. Today, the stock is up 0.8% on the LSE.
The technical picture appears weaker for Kazatomprom. Its GDRs are down 3% today, moving slightly below the 200-day moving average. While this does not yet constitute a confirmed breakdown, it points to a continuing risk of elevated volatility.
Kaspi's ADSs gained 1.3% on Nasdaq. Despite somewhat uncertain intraday price action, the shares continue to advance overall and are currently trading at their highest levels since June 3.
Currency. The USD/KZT exchange rate reached its 100-day moving average and is actively testing this level today, falling to an intraday low of KZT 484.3 and rising to an intraday high of KZT 487.3.
Meanwhile, the Russian ruble continues to weaken against both the U.S. dollar and the Kazakh tenge, trading at RUB 76.7 per dollar and KZT 6.33 per ruble.