Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. U.S. markets posted a strong rally on Monday, reversing last week’s energy and rate shock: the Nasdaq rose 2.8% and set a record close for the first time since June, while the S&P 500 added 1.5%, approaching its high. The key driver was a pullback in oil and yields: Brent fell 3.4% to around $100 per barrel on a partial recovery in Saudi exports, a six-month high in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and hopes for U.S.–Iran diplomacy, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved back below 5%. Against this backdrop, the semiconductor index gained more than 3%, and Meta shares jumped 11% on signals that spending on AI infrastructure may come in below expectations. Optimism was also supported by the Trump–Xi summit scheduled for Thursday, as well as an agreement on a U.S.–China AI dialogue following Bessent’s successful weekend meeting with He Lifeng. Europe also closed higher in line with the broader rally. European banks (+1.7%) led sector gains, including on the back of a potential M&A deal. This morning, Asian markets are trading slightly higher, although the session began more convincingly: after the open, selling emerged. Korea’s Kospi is up about 0.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up only 0.1%. The situation is similar in China, while Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.
KASE Index. KASE posted a slight gain of 0.2% yesterday, continuing its recovery after a prolonged decline. However, intraday the index fell as much as 0.6% due to Narodny Bank and Kazatomprom after their weak Friday session. That said, after the start of the London session, prices recovered and ultimately finished higher.
Index stocks. Kazatomprom GDRs on the LSE rose 6.2% to $68.7 after a sharp 5.4% drop on Friday. The GDR price bounced off the one-year upward trendline, which is not visible in the tenge-denominated shares due to the strong strengthening of the tenge against the dollar. On KASE, the shares increased 1.3%, providing—together with KazTransOil—the main positive contribution to the index. Among positive news for Kazatomprom, we note confirmation of full-volume sulfuric acid supplies from Russia in 2026 and the granting of rights to explore for uranium at the Kyzyltu site. Sulfuric acid is the key reagent in in-situ leach (ISL) uranium mining and has a strong impact on costs. KazTransOil shares gained 1.8% and again attempted to break above a level just below 1300 tenge, where they met selling resistance. However, selling volumes at these levels were small, and the shares may try to move back toward 1300 tenge again today. Solidcore on AIX slipped another 1.7% to $12.54 amid a 0.8% decline in gold.
Currency. USDKZT ended Monday almost unchanged, and this morning it is up 0.1%, continuing a technical rebound after a long streak of selling. The DXY dollar index rose 0.2% and will most likely attempt to обновить local highs.