Our comments and expectations
External Background:
The S&P 500 rose by 0.5% on Friday. Notably, despite the market's volatility, the weekly result was neutral, with the S&P 500 showing a 4.4% increase from its lows. The volatility index, also known as the fear index VIX, fell to 20.36 points. There was no dominance of specific sectors on the S&P 500 map. Large-cap companies like Apple, META, and Microsoft stood out slightly. This week, the publication of the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. on Wednesday. It is anticipated that the core inflation indicator will rise by 0.2%, similar to the overall figure. Officials from the Federal Reserve, including Bostic, Harker, and Musalem Gulsbee, will be speaking this week. On Friday, the University of Michigan will release its consumer sentiment data. In Europe, indices continued their recovery, with the Stoxx 600 rising by 0.6% and the DAX by 0.2%. Asian markets showed moderate dynamics in the morning, with the Korean Kospi gaining the most (+0.9%) and the Nikkei 225 rising by 0.6%. Chinese indices remained neutral. Oil is approaching the $80 mark again. Bloomberg reports that some of the largest American oil refineries are reducing their operational volumes this quarter, raising concerns about a global oversupply of crude oil.
Bonds:
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries did not rise above 4% and decreased on Friday. Emerging market bonds increased in price and are approaching the highs from August 2 on the iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) chart.
KASE Index:
The KASE rose by 0.7% on Friday, which is quite good for local dynamics. Quotes reached the lower boundary of the sideways channel that existed before the market drop early last week. To reach historical highs, the index has about 1.5% growth potential (to the mark of 5288 points set on July 5).
Index Stocks:
The leader of growth in the local market was Kcell, with quotes reaching historical highs and breaking upward from the sideways channel that had been in place since April. KazMunayGas is in second place for growth. In the local picture, stocks are in a sideways trend, but the long-term outlook remains in a rising channel. The GDRs of the National Bank rose by 2.7% on the LSE. This increase allowed quotes to return to their 50-day moving average, which has been restricting the growth of the GDRs since June. Air Astana's shares jumped by 5.8%. The rebound occurs against a moderately positive backdrop: from a technical perspective, the formation of a daily upward divergence and general oversold conditions of the stock acted as favorable factors, while from a fundamental perspective, the overall half-year report was relatively good. Among moderately negative moments, we note the damage to planes at the Astana airport (one operated by the airport and four during hail).
Currency:
This morning, the dollar is trading at 478.8 tenge on the forex market and KASE. On the USD/KZT chart, there is a noticeable resistance level for the dollar at the mark of 480.