Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 is rising for the third consecutive session, showing signs of a developing Christmas rally. All three major U.S. indices gained roughly the same amount — around 0.5–0.6%. To reach new all-time highs, the S&P 500 needs to add just over 0.3%. Meanwhile, the VIX index declined to 14.09 points, its lowest level since the beginning of the year. Fed representative Steven Miran stated that the central bank risks triggering a recession if it does not continue cutting interest rates in 2026. Goldman Sachs strategists noted that the bank’s base macroeconomic forecast “supports growth in small-cap stocks at the beginning of 2026.” The next key economic release will be GDP data, expected to be published today, with forecasts pointing to a 3% growth rate for the U.S. economy in the third quarter. In Europe, major indices posted more modest gains. In Asia, sentiment this morning remains restrained, with most key indices trading slightly higher. Citigroup downgraded Chinese equities, citing less favorable earnings forecasts and weak macroeconomic prospects. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%. Gold has reached $4,530 per ounce today, while oil is down 1% after rising 2.6% yesterday amid tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is rising for the second consecutive session, reaching 4.17%.
KASE Index. Yesterday’s slowdown in the upward momentum of the KASE index has turned into a local correction of about 0.7% today. This is also reflected in the performance of some of the previous sessions’ top gainers, as well as in the strengthening of the tenge. Although the index closed flat yesterday, it showed wide intraday fluctuations and recorded the highest trading volumes since September 8.
Index stocks. Elevated trading volumes yesterday were observed across several stocks rather than concentrated in a single name, as is often the case. In particular, a sharp increase was recorded in BCC and KMG shares, while volumes continued to rise in Halyk Bank, KEGOC, and Kazatomprom. The strongest gains were seen in Air Astana shares, which began to recover after the SPO. At today’s market open, the shares continued to move higher but have given back about half of their morning gains. Early signs of a local correction are coming from Halyk Bank, KEGOC, and Kazakhtelecom shares, confirming the likelihood of an index pullback in the coming sessions. The situation is weaker in KMG shares: since November 24, the stock has been in a downtrend, which intensified during the current and previous sessions, with lows updated to levels last seen on September 16. Kazatomprom is also showing some vulnerability following another highly volatile session yesterday. Nevertheless, the GDRs maintain strong technical support around the $50 level, along with a positive backdrop from uranium prices.
Currency. Today, the U.S. dollar is declining to 510 tenge. The global DXY dollar index has fallen to its lowest levels since October 6. The Russian ruble is also strengthening against the U.S. dollar, reaching 78.4.