Our comments and expectations
The external backdrop for the upcoming session remains mixed. According to media reports, the United States and Iran have moved closer to a framework memorandum that would define the parameters for ending the active phase of the conflict and pave the way for the next round of negotiations. Tehran’s response to Washington’s proposal is expected soon. However, there is still no final clarity regarding the terms of the agreement. Iran has already indicated that it considers some U.S. demands unrealistic, while Donald Trump continues to maintain a tough stance and does not rule out renewed military strikes if negotiations collapse. Against this backdrop, Asian markets are showing positive momentum, while the main source of support for global risk appetite remains the technology sector. The oil market is reacting sharply to any news regarding U.S.-Iran dialogue and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Ahead of the May 7 market open, WTI is down about 3%. Macroeconomic data is unlikely to have a decisive impact on trading, but it will remain important for assessing the current state of the U.S. economy. Today’s focus is on the New York Fed’s one-year consumer inflation expectations data for April (March: 3.42%). As usual on Thursdays, weekly jobless claims data will also be released. Consensus expects initial claims to rise from 189K to 205K, while continuing claims are forecast to increase from 1.785M to 1.809M. Investors will also pay attention to remarks from New York Fed President John Williams. Before the market opens, earnings reports will be released by McDonald’s, Cheniere Energy, Vistra, Canadian Natural Resources, Datadog, and Unity Software. After the close, quarterly results will be published by CoreWeave, Coinbase, Rocket Lab, Applied Optoelectronics, IREN, Cloudflare, and Gilead Sciences.
U.S. stock index futures are trading near flat levels. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral with moderate volatility. On the one hand, a strong earnings season and sustained interest in AI infrastructure continue to support bullish sentiment. On the other hand, the lack of final clarity in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the oil market’s sensitivity to headlines are limiting the room for further rally. The nearest resistance level for the S&P 500 is around 7,400 points, while support is near 7,300 points. The RSI indicator points to an overheated market, reaching its highest level since July 2025. Since the start of the conflict in Iran, the S&P 500 has already gained 7%, while its rebound from the March 30 low has exceeded 16%.
Premarket highlights
· Arm Holdings shares remain under pressure despite strong earnings. Quarterly revenue reached a record high, EPS exceeded consensus, and current-quarter guidance came in slightly above expectations. The muted reaction is likely tied to cautious management commentary regarding server solution shipments.
· DoorDash shares are up about 11% following quarterly results. Revenue of $4.04B came slightly below expectations, but total orders increased 27% to 933M.
· Fortinet shares are rising around 16% after the company reported strong quarterly results, with revenue up 20% year-over-year to $1.85B.
· Coherent shares are down about 7% despite strong results, likely due to overly high investor expectations.
· Cognex shares gained around 14% after results significantly exceeded forecasts.
· Snap shares fell more than 9% after earnings.
· IonQ shares declined around 6% despite results beating expectations.
· Shell exceeded consensus on adjusted earnings but reduced its share buyback program.
Market yesterday
Trading on U.S. stock exchanges on May 6 ended near intraday highs. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 gained 1.46% and 2.08%, respectively, setting new record highs. The Dow Jones rose 1.24%, while the Russell 2000 added 1.47%.
Market momentum was driven by renewed hopes for an agreement to end the conflict with Iran. Investors reacted positively to reports that the parties are working on a framework memorandum that could form the basis for another round of talks next week.
The pullback in oil prices shifted investor attention toward artificial intelligence, demand for computing power, and hyperscaler capital expenditures. Additional support came from strong AMD earnings, new Anthropic agreements with Alphabet and SpaceX, and a partnership between NVIDIA and Corning.
Technology, industrials, and materials sectors led gains, while energy lagged as WTI crude dropped 7%.
All members of the “Magnificent Seven” closed higher, with NVIDIA among the strongest performers.
Macroeconomic data was moderately positive overall. According to ADP, private-sector employment increased by 109K in April, the strongest gain since January 2025.
Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious tone.
Company news
· Hut 8 Corp. surged more than 35% on news of a Texas data center project despite weaker-than-expected results.
· DaVita reported revenue and earnings above consensus.
· Joby Aviation posted results above forecasts.
· Corning gained after announcing a partnership with NVIDIA.
· Uber Technologies slightly missed revenue expectations but exceeded booking forecasts.
· Walt Disney reported revenue and profit above expectations.
· Novo Nordisk raised guidance due to strong Wegovy sales momentum.
· Primoris Services plunged more than 50% following weak results and lowered guidance.