The US market: overview and forecast for April 10. At the intersection of inflation and geopolitics

Our Expectations

 

This Friday, investors will focus on March CPI inflation data. The release is expected to reflect the impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict and the resulting oil shock for the first time. It may significantly influence market sentiment and Federal Reserve rate expectations.

Headline CPI consensus stands at +0.9% m/m (February: +0.3%). Wall Street forecasts range from +0.7% to +1.5% m/m, driven by an expected 10–11% jump in fuel prices. The model from Freedom Broker points to +0.94% m/m, close to the market median.

Core CPI consensus is +0.3% m/m (February: +0.2%), with Freedom Broker at +0.27% m/m, factoring in a +0.8% increase in transportation services due to higher gasoline prices. Other inflation components remain moderate. Market reaction should be limited unless there are meaningful surprises in core components. The University of Michigan preliminary April consumer sentiment index will also be released. Expectations stand at 51.5 (vs. 53.3 prior), reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid high fuel prices.

The key geopolitical event over the weekend will be talks between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad. The U.S. delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance. Tensions remain elevated. A constructive outcome would support risk assets, while failure could push oil above $100 and trigger equity correction.

S&P 500 futures show flat-to-slightly positive dynamics. The risk balance is neutral with elevated volatility. A break above 6,900 would support continuation of the uptrend, while a drop below 6,750 would increase downside risk.

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In Focus

· Tecnoglass –4% pre-market on lower EBITDA outlook due to tariffs.
· Simulations Plus +13% after strong earnings.
· Beam Global –8% on weak revenue outlook.
· FGI Industries –5% on weak demand trends.

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Market Recap

April 9 session ended in positive territory:
S&P 500 +0.62%
NASDAQ-100 +0.72%
Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.58%
Russell 2000 +0.60%

Markets were supported by easing fears of Middle East escalation and CTA-driven inflows. Amazon rose +5.6% on strong AI demand commentary.