The US market: review and forecast for May 12. Waiting for the inflation statistics

Our Comments and Expectations

The key macroeconomic event of the upcoming session will be the publication of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. Consensus expectations suggest a slowdown in headline inflation growth from March’s 0.9% to 0.6% month-over-month. The market consensus for the core index (excluding food and energy) implies an increase from 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month. Freedom Finance forecasts both indicators at +0.4% month-over-month (+3.5% year-over-year). The more moderate expectations are linked to the fact that secondary effects from higher oil prices still appear limited. A slowdown in inflation would support expectations of Fed policy easing, while acceleration would signal persistent price pressure.

Also on Tuesday, investors will focus on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April (consensus: 96.1 points, March: 95.8), weekly ADP employment data (previous reading: 39.25 thousand), and April federal budget balance statistics (consensus: $226 billion, March: -$164.1 billion).

In the second half of the day, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams will deliver comments. Their assessments are important for understanding whether the Federal Reserve views current price risks as temporary or sees reasons to maintain tight monetary conditions for longer.

The key external factor remains the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain unsuccessful. The United States is increasing pressure on its opponent and does not rule out a return to large-scale military action. Iran insists on recognition of its terms and warns that prolonged settlement efforts will increase U.S. costs. At the same time, Trump’s statements about the need for new tariffs are increasing overall uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy. This maintains the risk of disruptions in oil supplies, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and additional pressure on costs for import-dependent companies.

Before the main session opens, financial results will be released by D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Sea (SE), Venture Global (VG), First Majestic Silver (AG), JD.com (JD), Madison Air (MAIR), and Qnity (Q). After the close, quarterly reports will be published by Nextpower (NXT), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Karman Space & Defense (KRMN), and JBS (JBS).

U.S. stock index futures are trading moderately lower. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral with moderate volatility. The nearest resistance level for the S&P 500 is around 7450 points, while support is near 7350.

Premarket Highlights

· PACS Group (PACS) shares are rising more than 20% in response to a strong quarterly report and the announcement of a $250 million share buyback program. The company’s revenue from January through March increased by 11.2% year-over-year to $1.42 billion, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 74.6% to $170.4 million. Additional support for the stock came from an increased adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026.

· Quantum Computing (QUBT) shares are up about 13% following the first-quarter report, in which company revenue reached $3.7 million compared to only $39 thousand a year earlier. This result was mainly driven by the acquisitions of Luminar Semiconductor and NuCrypt. Cash, cash equivalents, and investments at the end of the quarter approached $1.4 billion. At the same time, the business remains in an early stage, resulting in a net loss of $4.1 million, while its contract portfolio remains relatively modest at $16 million.

· Super Group (SGHC) shares are gaining approximately 8% after quarterly results showed that revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $612 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 36% to $152 million. The company maintained its 2026 guidance for these indicators above $2.55 billion and $680 million respectively.

· Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) shares are falling about 15% as the market reacted negatively to deteriorating profitability despite higher revenue guidance. During the reporting period, revenue increased 4% year-over-year, while gross margin declined from 73% to 65%, and adjusted EBITDA fell from $91.1 million a year earlier to $44.3 million. The pressure is linked to replacing proprietary GLP-1 drug versions with FDA-approved products, which worsens margins in the short term. At the same time, the company lowered its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $275–350 million.

· AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is losing more than 10% after earnings, as investors were dissatisfied with the pace of business commercialization. Revenue totaled $14.7 million, below consensus expectations. At the same time, the company confirmed its 2026 guidance of $150–200 million. The market expects stronger revenue generation from private partnerships and government contracts.

· MARA Holdings (MARA) shares are declining about 5% after releasing a weak quarterly report. Company revenue fell 18% year-over-year, while net loss widened to $1.3 billion. The main pressure came from the decline in Bitcoin prices during the quarter and approximately $1.0 billion in negative revaluation of digital assets. Additional pressure on results is related to high energy costs and increasing competition in mining, which requires greater computing power to produce the same amount of Bitcoin.

Market Review

Trading on U.S. stock exchanges on May 11 ended moderately higher, although below intraday highs. The S&P 500 gained 0.19%, NASDAQ 100 rose 0.29%, the Dow Jones increased 0.19%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.33%.

Energy companies (XLE: +2.64%), IT sector representatives (XLK: +1.34%), and materials producers (XLB: +1.3%) led gains in the broader market. Telecoms (XLC: -1.16%) and consumer staples suppliers (XLP: -0.96%) lagged behind.

Technology stocks continued to receive support from the semiconductor segment, which gained more than 2%. The strongest positive dynamics were seen among memory chip manufacturers, driven by concerns over a potential strike at Samsung facilities.

Within the “Magnificent Seven,” Tesla (TSLA: +3.89%) and NVIDIA (NVDA: +1.97%) attracted the strongest buying interest, while the remaining giants lagged the broader market.

The U.S. market managed to stay positive despite rising oil prices, increasing Treasury yields, and higher volatility. WTI futures gained around 2.8% by the end of the day. Investors continue to price in de-escalation of the Middle East conflict, especially ahead of this week’s meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders. Artificial intelligence remains the main support for equities, particularly demand for computing power, semiconductors, and infrastructure capital expenditures.

Pressure is becoming more visible on stocks tied to consumer demand and transportation, as higher gasoline prices may reduce household spending. Another source of concern remained the hantavirus issue.

Macroeconomic statistics were neutral overall. Existing home sales in April totaled 4.04 million compared to a consensus forecast of 4.11 million and generally remained within the narrow range observed since the beginning of the year. The U.S. Treasury auction of $68 billion in three-year Treasuries was slightly weaker than expected, with a 0.6 basis point yield tail, while total issuance volume reached about $140 billion.

Company News

· Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises (BW: +30.1%) reported a 44% year-over-year increase in first-quarter revenue to $214.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA nearly quadrupled. Orders reached $2.5 billion with backlog at $2.7 billion. The company separately highlighted strong interest from new customers in AI data center and hyperscaler segments.

· Lumentum Holdings (LITE: +16.5%) will join the NASDAQ 100 index on May 18, replacing CoStar Group. This is an important technical catalyst for the stock, as index rebalancing usually generates additional demand from index funds.

· Circle Internet Group (CRCL: +15.9%) generated $694 million in revenue and reserve income during the reporting quarter, below market expectations. At the same time, adjusted EBITDA rose 24% year-over-year to $151 million, while management reaffirmed key guidance targets. Investors also reacted positively to growth in transaction volumes, the launch of Agent Stack, and increased USDC activity on the platform.

· Barrick Mining (B: +9%) delivered strong first-quarter results driven by record gold prices, lower costs, and strong free cash flow despite lower year-over-year production. The company maintained its 2026 guidance, stated that preparations for the North American Barrick IPO are proceeding according to plan, and announced a new $3 billion share buyback program.

· Kodiak Gas Services (KGS: +8.4%) exceeded expectations on revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Growth was driven by stronger-than-expected demand for compressor capacity and improved profitability. The new 2026 guidance already incorporates recently acquired energy assets.

· Fox (FOXA: +7.6%) exceeded expectations for revenue and profit in the third fiscal quarter. Results were mainly supported by growth in distribution revenue and strong performance from Tubi, while advertising revenue declined due to the absence of last year’s Super Bowl effect.

· Tyson Foods (TSN: -1.9%) came under pressure after reports that the U.S. administration may temporarily reduce tariffs on beef imports. This creates a risk of additional pricing pressure in the domestic meat market.

· Constellation Energy (CEG: -1.3%) reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings, but the market reacted negatively to the company’s 2026 guidance, which on average came in below consensus. Additional uncertainty remains around regulatory issues related to data center projects despite ongoing demand for energy capacity from AI infrastructure.