The US market: review and forecast for April 13. Geopolitics is once again dictating the direction of trading

Our Expectations

Today, investors’ attention is focused on a sharp deterioration in the geopolitical environment following the collapse of talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad. The negotiations, which lasted more than 20 hours, ended without any results. The U.S. side reaffirmed a hardline stance on key peace terms. The United States now plans to begin a naval blockade of Iranian ports at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, marking a shift into a more acute phase of the conflict and significantly increasing escalation risks. The situation is further complicated by rising military activity in the region. Israel has placed its armed forces on high alert, considering scenarios of renewed direct conflict with Iran, while Iran signals readiness for retaliation and maintains control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Additional uncertainty comes from reports of possible Chinese support for Iran, including air defense system deliveries in the coming weeks. Among today’s limited macro releases, March existing home sales stand out (consensus: 4.05mn vs. February: 4.09mn). A further decline would reinforce signs of slowing consumer activity and economic cooling, while stronger data would indicate resilient demand. Also in focus are comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ahead of its spring meetings, which may shape global growth forecasts amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. Earnings season has begun, with S&P 500 companies expected to post 12.7% profit growth. Before the open, results will be released by Goldman Sachs and Fastenal.

Futures on the S&P 500 show a modest positive tone. The risk balance for the session is neutral with elevated volatility. A sustained move above 6,850 would support further upside, while a break below 6,750 would increase downside pressure.

In Focus

• GFL Environmental shares are up ~2% pre-market after reports of a potential $4.3bn+ acquisition of Secure Waste.
• Chevron and ExxonMobil are up ~2% and ~3% respectively on rising oil prices.
• Baker Hughes is up ~2% after announcing the sale of its Waygate Technologies unit.

Market Recap

U.S. markets closed mixed on April 10.
S&P 500 –0.11%
NASDAQ-100 +0.14%
Dow Jones Industrial Average –0.56%
Russell 2000 –0.22%

Sentiment was driven by geopolitical uncertainty and macro repricing. Semiconductors remained strong, with NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD gaining on continued demand for computing capacity. Inflation data was mixed, with headline CPI accelerating to 3.3% y/y, while core inflation came in below expectations, contributing to volatility across markets.