The US market: review and forecast for May 13. Volatility is coming back to normal

Our Expectations

This Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will be published (consensus: +0.3% month-on-month for both the general and core indicators). According to the Freedom Broker model, price growth may slow to 0.2% month-on-month due to weakening inflationary pressure in rental and transportation services segments, with the effect of new trade tariffs likely to be felt only in the summer. In April, price growth for goods was probably restrained by active sales of inventory stocks accumulated in previous months. We believe that this release will not provide significant guidance for forecasting the Fed's future actions regarding monetary policy.

The focus remains on the U.S. foreign trade policy. Progress in trade negotiations with China has led to expectations of possible easing of conditions for other trade partners. According to Finance Minister Scott Bessent, the deal with the EU will be more complex than with China and will take longer, as a collective decision will need to be made. Any statements related to foreign economic matters could act as a catalyst for short-term volatility and a reassessment of risks.

Before the main session opens, quarterly reports will be published by Sea Limited (SE), JD.com (JD), Under Armour (UAA), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Honda Motor Co (HMC), and ON holding (ONON). After-market results will be released by Nu Holdings (NU) and Oklo (OKLO).

U.S. major stock index futures are showing consolidation. We forecast a moderate level of volatility for the upcoming session, with a neutral risk balance. We expect S&P 500 movement within a range of 5730–5960 points (from -1% to +1% relative to the previous session’s closing level).

---

In Focus:

• Coinbase (COIN) shares rose 11% in after-hours trading after being included in the S&P 500 index, replacing Discover Financial Services (DFS).

• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) reported higher-than-expected profits but lower-than-expected revenue, causing the stock to drop 12% after the main session.

• Hertz (HTZ) posted a quarterly loss of $1.12 per share, against a consensus estimate of $0.94, with revenue of only $1.81 billion, below the expected $2.01 billion. As a result, shares dropped 6% after-hours.

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares corrected by 3% in after-hours trading following a mixed quarterly report: the company reported a loss per share of $0.20 (expected $0.26), while revenue came in at $7.18 million, lower than the expected $10.94 million.

• China lifted the one-month ban on Boeing (BA) aircraft deliveries, according to Bloomberg, citing informed sources. The decision was made amid the de-escalation of trade tensions with Washington.

---

Market Recap

On May 12, U.S. stock markets ended the session with impressive gains. The S&P 500 rose by 3.26%, NASDAQ 100 surged by 4.02%, Dow Jones gained 2.81%, and Russell 2000 increased by 3.42%. All of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks showed positive dynamics, with Amazon (AMZN) leading, rising by more than 8%. Most sectors in the broad market index closed in the green, with durable goods suppliers (XLY: +4.97%) leading the growth. The only sector to see a decline, due to reduced interest in defensive assets, was utilities (XLU: -0.6%). The VIX index fell below 19 points, marking its lowest level since March 27.

In April, the U.S. budget recorded a surplus of $258 billion. This was 23% higher than the previous year's value, thanks to peak tax receipts and higher tariff income. Customs duties reached $16 billion due to high tariffs, especially on Chinese goods. Additional support came from deferred tax payments from California and a calendar shift in expenses. However, authorities expect a reduction in customs receipts in the coming months due to the temporary agreement with China.

---

Company News

• NRG Energy (NRG: +26.2%) shares rose following news of the $12 billion acquisition of LS Power assets and the launch of a $1 billion annual share buyback program. Quarterly EBITDA exceeded expectations.

• Fox (FOXA: +4.3%) reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue, driven by income from Super Bowl broadcasting, improved Tubi service performance, and sublicensing revenues from other sporting events.

• Amazon (AMZN: +8.07%) reached an agreement with FedEx (FDX: +6.94%) for large parcel deliveries after United Parcel Service (UPS) announced it would end a less profitable partnership and cut 20,000 jobs.

---

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 has confidently surpassed the 200-day moving average, signaling a return to a full "bullish" trend. The 5790-point level, which acted as support yesterday, remains a key reference for today. Holding this level is critical for maintaining current heights. The RSI indicator has risen to its highest level in six months but has not yet entered the overbought zone, so there is still room for upward movement. The nearest resistance level for the broad market index is 6000 points.