The US market: review and forecast for April 14. Reporting season will support the bulls

Our Expectations

Market dynamics continue to be driven by developments in the Middle East conflict. Following the U.S.-led blockade of Iranian ports, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. At the same time, signals of a potential continuation of dialogue between Washington and Tehran, as well as remarks by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance that progress depends on the Iranian side, are somewhat improving market sentiment. However, the risk of disruptions in energy supply remains high. Macroeconomic data scheduled for release this Tuesday are unlikely to have a significant impact on trading. The March Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published. Consensus expectations are for a 1.1% m/m increase in the headline figure and 0.4% m/m in the core index (following 0.7% and 0.5% in February, respectively). The stronger headline reading reflects higher energy prices, while the core inflation trend is more important for markets. The March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will also be released (consensus: 98 points; prior: 98.8). A reading in line with expectations would confirm continued caution among small businesses. Before the market open, earnings will be reported by J.P. Morgan, Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, CarMax, and Albertsons. After the close, results will be released by Equity Bancshares and Mama's Creations.

Futures on the S&P 500 show modest positive momentum. The risk balance for the session is assessed as neutral with elevated volatility: geopolitical uncertainty and inflation expectations continue to weigh on markets, while expectations around U.S.–Iran negotiations and a moderate macro backdrop prevent a sharp sell-off. A sustained move above 6,890 points would signal continuation of the upward trend.

In Focus

• Bloom Energy shares surged 15% pre-market after expanding its agreement with Oracle.
• Credo Technology is up nearly 10% after announcing the acquisition of DustPhotonics.
• Dell Technologies and HP are down about 2% after reports of a potential NVIDIA deal were denied.
• Sana Biotechnology is up more than 25% following a partnership with Mayo Clinic.
• Allogene Therapeutics is down about 7% after announcing a $175 million equity offering.

Market Recap

Trading on April 13 ended on a strong note across U.S. equity markets. S&P 500 gained 1.02%, NASDAQ-100 rose 1.06%, Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.63%, and Russell 2000 advanced 1.52%.