The US market: review and forecast for April 15th. S&P 500 goes on record

Our Expectations

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty for market participants. At the same time, news related to the geopolitical agenda signals an improvement in the overall environment. U.S. President Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility of continuing negotiations with Iran in the coming days with mediation from Pakistan. Oil prices are already incorporating a de-escalation scenario. The sharp decline in WTI prices yesterday indicates that investors are gradually reassessing the scale and duration of potential disruptions in energy supplies. Expectations of a near-term final peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. allow market participants to focus on traditional corporate drivers: the positive start of the earnings season, M&A activity, and continued momentum in the artificial intelligence trend. The most important publication of the day will be the release of the Beige Book by the Federal Reserve System. Given the persistent geopolitical risks, the regulator’s assessment of consumer activity, labor market conditions, and inflationary pressures will be particularly important. Before the market opens, the April Empire Manufacturing Index for New York will be released (consensus: –0.5 points; previous: –0.2 points). A further decline would confirm that the state’s manufacturing sector remains pessimistic amid the energy shock and supply uncertainty, although the market impact of the data will likely be secondary. A key report for today’s trading dynamics is the first-quarter earnings of ASML. The world’s only manufacturer of EUV lithography equipment — essential for producing advanced chips — generated €8.8 billion in revenue with a gross margin of 53%, at the upper end of its own guidance. Management raised its 2026 revenue outlook from €34–39 billion to €36–40 billion, citing strong demand from memory and logic chip manufacturers.

Before the main trading session begins, quarterly reports will be released by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Reports are also expected from Progressive Corporation, PNC Financial Services Group, M&T Bank, and First Horizon Corporation. After the close, J.B. Hunt Transport Services will publish its results.

Futures on the S&P 500 are trading near flat. The risk balance for the upcoming session is assessed as positive with moderate volatility. The index is approaching its historical record; a shift toward correction could occur if the benchmark falls below the psychologically significant level of 6900 points.

In Focus

• Shares of Broadcom are up about 3% in pre-market trading after announcing a partnership with Meta Platforms through 2029.
• GitLab shares are rising about 5.5% following expanded cooperation with Google Cloud.
• TeraWulf shares are down about 6% after announcing an additional $800 million stock offering.
• Shares of Robinhood Markets are up around 4%, while Webull gains reach 8% after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission abolished the rule requiring day traders to maintain at least $25,000 in a margin account.
• Shares of Mama's Creations are rising 4% after quarterly results exceeded analyst expectations.