The US market. review and forecast for May 15th. Time to lock in profits

We expect

The focus of global markets will be on the outcome of negotiations between U.S. and Chinese leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The parties stated their intention to maintain “strategic stability” in relations over the next three years, while Trump invited Xi to visit the White House in September, which the investment community interpreted as a signal that dialogue between the U.S. and China will continue.

Nevertheless, profit-taking is being observed in equities. The results of the U.S. president’s visit to Beijing are being viewed as insufficiently positive. Behind Trump’s statements about “fantastic trade deals” there is still only a limited set of concrete agreements. The U.S. expects China to commit to multi-billion-dollar purchases of American agricultural products, but the details of the agreement have not been disclosed. Additional pressure on market sentiment came from the reaction of Boeing (BA) shares to the news. According to Trump, China is prepared to purchase only 200 aircraft, whereas investors had expected a contract for 500 planes. The geopolitical aspect of the negotiations also failed to provide clear positivity. Trump stated that the Chinese leader had offered assistance in resolving the conflict with Iran. However, Beijing did not directly confirm this, limiting itself to calls for restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. All of this does not provide sufficient grounds for further increasing the share of risky assets in investment portfolios.

This Friday, Kevin Warsh will officially assume the position of Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, replacing Jerome Powell. The new head of the regulator will immediately face the problem of rising inflation expectations, which are negatively affecting the U.S. Treasury market. The issue is being exacerbated by the fact that yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds exceeded 4% during today’s trading, gaining 34 basis points over the week. This is a rare selloff for a developed market. In turn, 30-year U.S. Treasuries are approaching multi-year yield highs today, trading around 5.09%. We believe that further upward movement in this indicator will trigger a negative reaction in the equity market.

Today’s main macroeconomic release will be the Empire Manufacturing index for May (consensus: 7.2 points, April: 11 points). A decline in the indicator would signal more restrained dynamics in the U.S. industrial sector. Data on April industrial production (consensus: +0.3%, March: -0.5%) and capacity utilization (consensus: 75.8%, March: 75.7%) will also be released today.

Investors will also closely watch speeches by Michael Barr and John Williams. Against the backdrop of persistent inflation risks, investors will continue searching for signals regarding the future trajectory of Federal Reserve System monetary policy.

Before the opening of the main trading session, earnings reports will be released by Alaska Air Group (ALK), RBC Bearings (RBC), H World Group (HTHT), and Datavault AI (DVLT).

Futures on major U.S. stock indices are showing negative dynamics following strong gains the previous day. NASDAQ 100 is down more than 1%. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as negative with moderate volatility. The correction appears entirely justified and long overdue, considering the degree of overheating in major stock indices. If S&P 500 returns above 7500, the negative scenario will not materialize.

Premarket highlights

· Shares of Figma (FIG) rose approximately 11% following the release of strong quarterly results and an increase in its annual revenue guidance from $1.36–1.37 billion to $1.42–1.43 billion. The company continues to benefit from strong demand for design tools and products integrated with artificial intelligence.

· Shares of Dexcom (DXCM) gained about 4% after the announcement of corporate changes ahead of its investor day and the start of cooperation with Elliott Investment Management. The market interpreted the involvement of this activist investor as a potential catalyst for improving the company’s operational efficiency and strategy after weak stock performance in recent quarters.

· Strong quarterly results pushed shares of Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) up by around 4%. The company’s revenue increased 19% year-over-year to $539 million, while earnings per share reached $1.45, surpassing average market expectations. An improved fiscal 2026 outlook provided additional positivity for investors.

· Shares of Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fell approximately 6% after the announcement of a secondary offering of up to $600 million. Despite continued strong investor interest in companies tied to AI infrastructure and data centers, the market reacted negatively to the potential dilution of shareholder stakes following the sharp rally in the stock since the beginning of the year.

Market recap

Trading on U.S. stock exchanges on May 14 ended in positive territory. S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 rose 0.77% and 0.73%, respectively, setting new all-time highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.75%, while Russell 2000 advanced 0.67%.

Most sectors posted positive performance. The technology sector (XLK: +1.50%) led gains thanks to active buying in semiconductor manufacturers and AI infrastructure developers. Additional support came from strong results by Cisco Systems (CSCO), which raised its guidance for AI-related order volumes for fiscal year 2026.

Materials producers (XLB: -0.75%) lagged due to declines in metallurgical and chemical company shares.

The “Magnificent Seven” closed mixed. Shares of NVIDIA (NVDA: +4.39%) and Microsoft (MSFT: +1.04%) outperformed the broader market amid reports of potential easing of restrictions on AI chip exports to China, as well as strong demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure solutions.

Macroeconomic statistics had little impact on investor sentiment. U.S. retail sales increased 0.5% month-over-month in April, matching market expectations, while initial jobless claims came in at 211,000 versus a consensus forecast of 205,000. At the same time, investors continue to factor in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve System will maintain a hawkish stance amid stronger inflation signals.

Company news

· Fiserv (FISV) held its investor day, presenting updated medium-term targets. The company expects revenue growth to accelerate through 2029, announced a partnership with OpenAI, and unveiled a joint venture with Bridgeport Partners to expand in ATM and cash processing services.

· A leak from Best Buy sparked rumors about the imminent launch of preorders for Grand Theft Auto VI by Take-Two Interactive (TTWO: +6.8%). However, neither the company nor Rockstar Games officially confirmed the information. For investors, the release of GTA VI remains one of the key drivers behind expectations for the developer’s financial performance in 2027.

· The U.S. president announced that China would order 200 aircraft from Boeing (BA: -4.7%), although previous discussions involved 500 airliners. Additional uncertainty stems from the lack of deal details and ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China.

· YETI Holdings (YETI: +6.2%) reported first-quarter revenue and earnings above average forecasts. The results were driven by growth in wholesale sales and strong demand for drinkware products. The company also raised its 2026 revenue guidance and approved a $500 million share buyback program.

· First-quarter revenue growth at Viking Holdings (VIK: +5.5%) exceeded market expectations. The company also reported strong booking levels for 2026–2027. The market reacted positively to the appointment of a new CEO.

· Oklo (OKLO: -3.5%) announced a secondary stock offering of up to $1 billion shortly after releasing quarterly results that showed a larger-than-expected loss. Investors reacted negatively to the potential dilution of shareholder stakes, despite the fact that the proceeds could accelerate the development of small modular nuclear reactors.