The US market: review and forecast for April 16. Awaiting de-escalation

Our expectations

The development of negotiations between the United States and Iran will remain in focus during the upcoming session, although the White House has not officially confirmed the extension of the ceasefire regime. The next round of U.S.–Iran negotiations involving Vice President J.D. Vance may take place in Pakistan in the coming days. The main disagreements between the parties still concern Iran’s nuclear program, the navigation regime in the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for damage caused by U.S. military actions to the infrastructure of the Islamic Republic. Washington insists on a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment, rejecting Tehran’s proposal to limit the ban to five years. The naval blockade of Iranian ports continues. The Pentagon is sending around 6,000 troops to the region aboard the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush along with escort ships. By the end of the month, another 4,200 personnel are expected to reinforce the group. As a result, the total number of troops involved in operations against Iran may exceed 60,000. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the UAE, Oman, Hong Kong, and mainland China about possible secondary sanctions against their financial institutions holding Iranian assets. Two Chinese banks have already received official notifications from the U.S. Treasury. Additional uncertainty has been created by a CFTC investigation into suspicious oil futures trades that preceded White House statements on Iran on March 23 and April 7. One of the positions involved is estimated at around $950 million. Macroeconomic releases are unlikely to determine stock market dynamics during trading on April 16. On Thursday, April data for the New York services business activity index and the Philadelphia manufacturing index will be published, as well as the March industrial production index. Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 215,000 after 219,000 a week earlier, allowing investors to assess the resilience of the labor market. Before the opening of the main trading session, quarterly results will be reported by Abbott Labs (ABT), Schwab (SCHW), Marsh & McLennan (MRSH), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Prologis (PLD). After the close, reports will be published by Netflix (NFLX), Alcoa (AA), and First National Bank (FNB).

Futures on U.S. stock indices are showing near-zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral amid increased volatility. The day before, the S&P 500 consolidated above the 7,000 level, updating its historical maximum. We expect the benchmark to fluctuate within the range of 7,000–7,100 points.