The US market: overview and forecast for July 2. The vector of bidding will be set by the news
2 July 2025, 16:04
Our Expectations
Contradictory statements from the U.S. President continue to fuel uncertainty around global trade issues. Donald Trump has made it clear that he does not intend to revise the timelines for import tariffs and is even considering raising tariffs on Japanese goods from the current 10% to 30–35%. Meanwhile, the White House team appears increasingly inclined to sign small, individual agreements with various countries ahead of the July 9 deadline, aiming to mitigate the negative impact of restoring maximum import duty rates.
The main macroeconomic release this Wednesday will be the ADP employment report for June. Consensus forecasts call for an increase of 97,000 new jobs, compared to 37,000 in May. This report will serve as an important indicator for assessing labor market conditions ahead of Thursday’s official non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Before the market opens on July 2, Constellation Brands (STZ) will report its earnings.
According to Bloomberg, Tesla (TSLA) sold approximately 389,400 vehicles during the second quarter of the calendar year.
U.S. index futures are trading slightly higher. We assess the risk balance as neutral amid moderate volatility. We expect the S&P 500 to move within the 6,150–6,260 point range (from –0.8% to +1% relative to the previous session’s close).
In Focus:
Major U.S. banks announced dividend hikes and new share buyback programs after successfully passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) will increase its quarterly dividend to $1.50 per share and launch a $50 billion buyback program. Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Citigroup (C) also announced increases in shareholder payouts. Executives emphasized the strong resilience of the banking system and welcomed the updated stress-testing approaches. Intel (INTC) CEO Lip-Bu Tan plans to revamp the company’s foundry business by discontinuing promotion of the 18A process for external clients and shifting focus to the more promising 14A technology. This may lead to significant write-offs but could open the door to clients such as Apple and NVIDIA. The strategy will be reviewed at a board meeting in July. Lockheed Martin (LMT) signed a 10-year contract worth up to $3 billion with the Pentagon for servicing the Aegis missile defense system. Centene (CNC) withdrew its earnings forecast due to revised data in the health insurance market and now expects EPS to fall to $2.75. The company also warned of further losses based on data from seven more states. CNC shares plunged 23% after the main session.
Market Recap:
On July 1, U.S. markets closed mixed: S&P 500 –0.11%, NASDAQ 100 –0.89%, Dow Jones +0.91%, Russell 2000 +0.94%.
Best performing sector: Materials (XLB: +2.59%), Worst: Technology (XLK: –0.89%) due to pressure on semiconductors.
Most of the “Magnificent Seven” ended in the red — with Tesla (TSLA –5.34%) and NVIDIA (NVDA –2.97%) falling sharply. Apple (AAPL +1.29%) was among the few that gained. Politically, the U.S. Senate narrowly approved the One Big Beautiful Bill, a sweeping package of tax cuts and spending reductions backed by the Trump administration. With a 51–50 vote and Vice President J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaker, the bill’s future remains uncertain as the House of Representatives continues to discuss amendments. JOLTS data showed job openings rose to 7.77 million in May (vs. 7.3 million forecast), indicating continued labor market strength despite a slowdown in hiring. ISM Manufacturing PMI for June came in at 49 (vs. 49.1 expected), still signaling contraction.
New orders fell to 46.4, while prices remained elevated, keeping inflation risks high. Conversely, S&P Global's PMI rose unexpectedly to 52.9, suggesting renewed growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a conference in Sintra, delivered no surprises. He reiterated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and that any adjustments will depend on incoming data. Powell did not rule out a policy shift as early as July but prefers to wait for more clarity on inflation and the labor market.
Company News:
Las Vegas Sands (LVS: +8.9%) surged after gross revenue in Macau rose by 19.1% YoY, beating expectations. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG: +7.6%) jumped on news it will acquire Greif’s container business for $1.8 billion in cash. The deal is expected to close by Q3-end. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD: –4.5%) dropped after Advance/Newhouse sold 100 million shares at $10.97 each. Coinbase (COIN: –4.3%) fell after reports that subsidiary Ault Markets (GPUS) plans to launch a global decentralized crypto exchange in the U.S. by 2026.
Technical Picture:
S&P 500 traded in a narrow range, consolidating near all-time highs. The next resistance zone is seen at 6,240–6,250. A positive signal: the share of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages increased from 53% to 59%. Also, the equal-weighted S&P 500 broke through resistance, reaching its highest level since December 2024. However, the RSI has entered overbought territory, potentially limiting further upside.