The US market: overview and forecast for June 2. Between the AI agenda and geopolitics

We expect

Market participants remain focused on developments in the Middle East. Iran announced the suspension of indirect negotiations with the United States and stated its intention to fully close the Strait of Hormuz in response to continued military actions in the region. Tensions were further heightened by reports of two Iranian ballistic missiles being launched at U.S. targets in Kuwait. Despite the absence of any damage, the market continues to price in the risk of oil supply disruptions and further escalation of the conflict. This supports elevated volatility in commodity assets and inflation expectations. In the macroeconomic calendar, the key event will be the April JOLTS job openings data release (consensus: 6.87 million, unchanged from the previous month). Today, U.S. auto sales data for May will also be published (consensus: 16 million, April: 15.92 million). Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to comment on the economic situation. Ahead of the May labor report, investors will closely watch any signals of labor market weakening and its implications for monetary policy. AI remains in focus. Anthropic has reportedly filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, which could increase expectations of further large listings, including OpenAI and other leading players in the sector. Recently, Anthropic guided annual revenue at $47 billion, while generating $10 billion in 2025. Its valuation stands at approximately $965 billion. Before the opening bell, Dollar General (DG), Victoria’s Secret (VSCO), and Signet Jewelers (SIG) will report earnings. After the close, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), GitLab (GTLB), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) will release quarterly results.

S&P 500 futures show a moderately negative trend. The risk balance for the upcoming session is assessed as neutral with elevated volatility. AI-driven optimism and solid corporate results continue to support buyers, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices limit risk appetite. Resistance for the broad market index is located around 7,620 points, with key support at 7,500.

Pre-market highlights

· Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares are up about 25% pre-market. The rally is driven by strong earnings and an upward revision of FY2026 EPS and free cash flow guidance to $3.35–3.45 and at least $3.5 billion respectively. The positive reaction is further supported by $1.8 billion in new AI system orders and a backlog reaching $5.9 billion.

· Microchip Technology (MCHP) is up around 5% after raising its FY2026 Data Center Solutions revenue outlook to approximately $500 million, up 65%, driven by sustained AI infrastructure demand.

· Credo Technology (CRDO) is down about 10%, despite record quarterly revenue and a strong outlook. Management expects FY2027 revenue growth of more than 80%, exceeding $600 million, driven by optical solutions and AI infrastructure demand.

· Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) is down about 10% after its vormatrigine trial for focal epilepsy failed to meet its primary endpoint. The company has paused development programs pending a strategic review.

· AEVEX (AVEX) is down about 10% following the announcement of an 8 million share Class A secondary offering. The dilution risk is weighing on the stock.

· Alphabet (GOOGL) is down around 2% after announcing plans to raise $80 billion via share issuance, including a $10 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway, to expand AI computing infrastructure.

Market yesterday

On June 1, U.S. equities closed mixed. The S&P 500 (+0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.6%) again reached record highs. The Dow Jones gained 0.09%, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.47%. The rally was driven by AI-related news. Semiconductor and software stocks saw the strongest demand. Within the Magnificent Seven, NVIDIA (+6.26%) and Microsoft (+2.28%) led gains. As a result, the IT sector (XLK: +2.48%) was the top performer, while utilities (XLU: -2.97%) lagged due to rising Treasury yields and reduced demand for defensive assets. WTI oil rose 5.5%, and short-end U.S. Treasury yields increased by 3–4 bps amid conflicting reports on U.S.–Iran negotiations. Despite Iranian media claims of halted talks and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, investors remained cautiously optimistic after reports of continued dialogue and Israel delaying planned strikes on Lebanon at the request of the U.S. Macro data was moderately positive. The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 54 points in May, the highest in three years. However, employment components remained in contraction, while price indices stayed elevated, indicating persistent inflationary pressure.

Company news

· Barry Diller’s People offered to acquire an additional 74% of MGM Resorts (MGM: +16.1%) at $48.3 per share.
· Cadence Design Systems (CDNS: +10.5%) unveiled a fully autonomous AI engineering platform for chip design.
· SAIC (SAIC: +10.4%) beat expectations and raised its EPS guidance.
· Humana (HUM: +7.5%) reaffirmed its full-year profit outlook.
· Strategy (MSTR: -5.9%) sold 32 bitcoins, its first such transaction in company history.