The US market: review and forecast for April 20. The news is on the side of the "bears"

We are waiting

Over the past weekend, the situation in the Middle East deteriorated sharply again. On Friday, for the first time since the 50-day blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was introduced, more than ten tankers were allowed to pass, including several sanctioned vessels, which initially boosted market optimism. However, the following day Iran banned the movement of commercial shipping through the route and opened fire on several vessels. On Sunday, the U.S. destroyer USS Spruance fired upon and disabled the Iranian cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman, which was subsequently seized by U.S. Marines. Donald Trump renewed threats to strike all Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran refuses to accept the terms of a peace agreement. The prospects for the second round of peace talks in Islamabad remain uncertain. Iran has refused to continue dialogue due to the ongoing naval blockade. Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that Tehran is not willing to hand over its enriched uranium stockpiles to the U.S. and demands the lifting of sanctions. The White House strongly opposes these conditions. The current ceasefire agreement expires on April 22. The risk of renewed military action in the coming days remains very high. Against this backdrop, oil prices are rising sharply. These factors collectively increase inflation risks and limit the Federal Reserve’s room for monetary easing. No major macroeconomic releases are scheduled for this Monday. Before the market open, Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Dynex Capital (DX) will report quarterly results. After the close, Steel Dynamics (STLD), AGNC Investment (AGNC), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Zions Bancorporation (ZION), and Wintrust Financial (WTFC) will publish their earnings.

U.S. equity futures are trending lower. The risk balance for the session is assessed as negative amid heightened volatility driven by escalating Middle East tensions, rising oil prices, and increasing inflation expectations.