The US market: review and forecast for April 21. The change of the head of the Fed is in focus

We expect

Retail sales data for March will be the key focus for investors (consensus: +1.4% m/m for both headline and core, following +0.6% and +0.5% in February). The headline figure is likely to be strong, partly due to higher gasoline prices. However, markets will differentiate between this effect and real consumer demand. Freedom Broker’s view is slightly more conservative than consensus, particularly for the control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations. Overall, the data may highlight resilient consumption and support Russell 2000, which is sensitive to domestic demand.

Senate Banking Committee hearings on Kevin Warsh are the key monetary policy event of the week. He is expected to emphasize Fed independence and price stability, signaling a more hawkish stance. His skepticism toward the Fed’s balance sheet will be closely watched.

Additional uncertainty stems from Thom Tillis blocking the nomination pending an investigation involving Jerome Powell. This raises questions about leadership transition. Any signs of politicization could increase market volatility.

The U.S.–Iran truce expires on April 22. Donald Trump called an extension unlikely but left room for a framework agreement. Iran has not confirmed participation in further talks.

Before the open, UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, RTX, Danaher, Halliburton, Northrop Grumman, and 3M will report. After the close, Capital One, Intuitive Surgical, United Airlines, Chubb, EQT, Interactive Brokers, and Annaly Capital will release results.

U.S. futures are moderately positive. Risk balance is neutral with elevated volatility. Earnings season and geopolitics remain key drivers. S&P 500 above 7160 could open upside, while below 7000 would increase downside risks.

Premarket highlights

· Tim Cook to become Executive Chairman of Apple; John Ternus to become CEO.
· Amazon rises ~2.4% on Anthropic partnership expansion.
· Alaska Air Group declines 4% after earnings.
· Spruce Biosciences drops 13% on share offering.
· BridgeBio Oncology rises 3% on FDA news.

Previous session

On April 20, U.S. markets closed mostly lower: S&P 500 -0.24%, NASDAQ 100 -0.31%, Dow Jones -0.01%, Russell 2000 +0.58%.

The pullback followed a three-week rally. Tesla and Meta Platforms led declines.