The US market: overview and forecast for March 26. The news agenda remains tense

What we expect

Geopolitics will continue to determine the dynamics of the upcoming trading session. The information environment around Iran remains contradictory. Washington reports ongoing contacts and the parties’ intention to reach peace, while Tehran denies direct negotiations and says only that signals are being exchanged through intermediaries. At the same time, military rhetoric is intensifying. Iran has stated it is ready to defend strategic infrastructure, including Khark Island, through which the majority of its oil exports pass, and warned about possible retaliatory measures if tensions escalate. The oil market remains an additional factor. Stress scenarios are being discussed in which oil prices could rise to as much as $200 per barrel. There are also assumptions that Saudi Arabia’s oil shipments to Asia in April may be lower than usual. This Thursday, data on initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 will be published (consensus: 210k, previous: 205k). Statistics on continuing claims for the week ending March 14 will also be released (consensus: 1.849 million, previous: 1.857 million). In addition, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index for March will be published (consensus: 3 points, February: 5 points). A key factor for market participants will be speeches by Federal Reserve officials Lisa Cook, Stephen Miran, Philip Jefferson, and Michael Barr. The focus will be on their comments regarding the impact of the oil crisis on inflation and economic growth, as well as signals about the future path of interest rates. A more dovish tone may support expectations of continued monetary policy easing, while emphasis on inflation risks would be viewed as a constraint on rate cuts. Futures on U.S. stock indices show moderately negative dynamics after yesterday’s growth. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trading session as neutral amid elevated volatility. From a technical perspective, the nearest resistance for the S&P 500 is around 6,650 points, while support is located near 6,550 points.

In focus

• Shares of Navan (NAVN) rose more than 20% in response to strong earnings and guidance that exceeded market expectations. The company accelerated revenue growth, showed a significant increase in booking volumes, and finished the year with positive operating cash flow for the first time, strengthening confidence in the business reaching sustainable profitability.
• Shares of Precigen (PGEN) are up more than 10% following the release of earnings and positive signals regarding the commercial launch of PAPZIMEOS, demand for which strengthened at the beginning of 2026. According to management estimates, current liquidity, including revenue from the new product, should be sufficient to reach cash flow breakeven by the end of the year.
• Worthington Steel (WS) shares fell 14% as the company’s results disappointed investors. Despite higher revenue, operating profit declined significantly. Results were pressured by weaker efficiency in parts of the business and expenses related to the Kloeckner deal.
• Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) shares declined more than 4% after the release of quarterly results and updated guidance. The company reported sales growth, but profitability deteriorated, partly due to weak performance in its service segment in the EMEA region (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa), as well as restructuring expenses.
• Shares of Celcuity (CELC) fell about 2% after the quarterly release despite the presence of significant clinical catalysts. The pressure is likely related to rising losses and a high level of cash burn, while investors are waiting for further regulatory decisions and new data on the key gedatolisib program.

Market yesterday

Trading on U.S. stock exchanges on March 25 closed in positive territory, although indices pulled back from intraday highs by the end of the day. The S&P 500 gained 0.54%, NASDAQ 100 rose 0.67%, Dow Jones increased 0.66%, and Russell 2000 climbed 1.23%. Leading technology companies supported the positive dynamics. The biggest gains were recorded by materials suppliers (XLB: +1.98%) and the healthcare sector (XLV: +1%). The consumer discretionary sector (XLY: +0.96%) and industrial companies (XLI: +0.67%) also outperformed the broader market. Energy stocks (XLE: −0.44%) were among the laggards due to a correction in oil prices (WTI: −2.2%, Brent: −2.2%). Real estate (XLRE: −0.05%) showed a slight decline. The main driver of growth was improving market sentiment amid expectations of a possible end to the U.S.–Iran conflict. The market reacted with buying to reports of a potential truce and intensified diplomatic contacts. Additional support for the bulls came from a decline in U.S. Treasury yields by 4–7 basis points, despite not very successful auctions, including the placement of five-year notes that came in weaker than forecasts and reflected restrained demand. Macroeconomic data signal continued inflationary pressure: import prices rose by 1.3% month-over-month in February (consensus: +0.6%), while export prices increased by 1.5% month-over-month (consensus: +0.45%), reaching multi-year highs.

Company news

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT: +35%) reported positive early clinical trial results for drugs aimed at treating rare muscle diseases, strengthening expectations for the potential of its gene therapy.

Arm Holdings (ARM: +16.4%) announced it will begin selling its own chips for the first time and presented a long-term forecast projecting significant revenue growth. Management expects revenue to reach around $25 billion within five years. Meta Platforms will become Arm’s first major client.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU: +13.4%) is engaging advisers to evaluate a potential sale of the business or a merger with other airlines.

Chewy (CHWY: +13.3%) reported EBITDA and profitability above expectations, while revenue came roughly in line with market forecasts. Additional support for the shares came from strong guidance on net sales.

Maze Therapeutics (MAZE: −35.2%) released positive data on the effectiveness of its drug for treating kidney diseases, but investors reacted skeptically due to the limited patient sample and the inconsistency of results.