The US market: overview and forecast for March 27. The course of trading will be determined by geopolitical turbulence

We Expect

The main driver of volatility and uncertainty remains the evolving situation in the Middle East. Yesterday evening, Donald Trump announced an extension of the pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure until April 6. According to the official statement from the The White House, Iran itself requested the delay and, in response, allowed ten oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, media outlets quickly reported that Tehran had made no such request, and there has been no independent confirmation regarding the tankers. Iranian authorities continue to deny the existence of direct contacts with the United States. The information environment surrounding the conflict remains highly unreliable. As a result, market reactions to geopolitical news are often disproportionately sharp, since verifying incoming information quickly is nearly impossible. In today’s macroeconomic calendar, the key release will be the final estimate of the March consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (consensus: 54 points, preliminary: 55.5). The downward revision likely reflects the recent surge in gasoline prices. Weaker data could place short-term pressure on consumer sector stocks. In addition, the March services activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will be released (previous: 6 points), providing additional insight into regional business conditions amid rising costs. In this context, remarks from Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, will be particularly important. Investors will closely monitor their comments on how the energy crisis could affect inflation, economic growth, and future adjustments to the policy rate.

Futures on major U.S. equity indices are showing positive momentum. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming trading session as neutral with elevated volatility. The nearest support for the S&P 500 is forming around 6450 points, with a break potentially opening the way toward the 6400 level. Resistance is shifting toward 6500, while a move back above 6570 could signal a more sustainable rebound.

In Focus

• Shares of Unity Software (U) jumped nearly 15% in premarket trading after preliminary Q1 2026 results exceeded the company’s own guidance.
• Strong earnings from infrastructure and engineering firm Argan (AGX) pushed its stock up nearly 10%.
• Newsmax (NMAX) shares rose about 5% premarket following the release of annual results.
• SIGA Technologies (SIGA) surged about 9% after the board approved a special dividend of $0.60 per share.
• Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO) dropped more than 11% in premarket trading after announcing a $200 million convertible bond offering and the sale of 5 million shares at $20 each.

Market Yesterday

Trading on March 26 on U.S. stock exchanges ended sharply lower after starting the day in positive territory. The S&P 500 fell 1.74%, the NASDAQ 100 dropped 2.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.01%, and the Russell 2000 slipped 1.7%.

The main driver of the sell-off was renewed skepticism about the de-escalation of tensions with Iran. This also triggered a jump in oil prices and Treasury yields. The only sector that managed to remain in positive territory was energy.

The correction was amplified by declines among members of the “Magnificent Seven” and semiconductor companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) dropped nearly 8% amid concerns about stricter regulation of big tech.

Macroeconomic data indicated that the labor market remains resilient. Initial jobless claims came in at 210,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, the lowest level since May 2024.

Company News

• Kodiak Sciences (KOD) surged after reporting successful Phase III trial results for its drug Zenkuda.
• Wave Life Sciences (WVE) plunged after disappointing early data on its obesity treatment WVE-007.
• MillerKnoll (MLKN) fell after weak quarterly results and a conservative outlook.
• Corebridge Financial and Equitable Holdings announced an all-stock merger creating a company managing about $1.5 trillion in assets.
• Brown‑Forman held preliminary talks with French spirits producer Pernod Ricard regarding a potential M&A deal.