The US market: an overview and forecast for May 28. Geopolitics and macrostatistics are rocking volatility

We expect

A new escalation in the Middle East will become the main source of pressure on global equity markets. The US military carried out strikes on targets in Iran that posed a threat to military forces and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that it had attacked a US military base. The investment community negatively reacted to US President Donald Trump’s denial of reports regarding a potential agreement on the Strait of Hormuz involving joint route management by Iran and Oman. In turn, Ali Bagheri Kani, representative of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated that a mandatory condition for any peace agreement is the full and unconditional unfreezing of Iranian assets blocked by the United States. Despite ongoing negotiations, rhetoric from both sides is becoming more aggressive, reducing the likelihood of a near-term diplomatic resolution. Signs of overcoming disagreements on most disputed issues remain insufficient, although the market is still pricing in the possibility of a peace agreement. The main macroeconomic event of the day will be the release of the PCE index — the most important inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Consensus expects headline inflation for April to rise by +0.5% m/m and +3.8% y/y, while core inflation is expected at +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y. Inflationary pressure in April remained elevated due to rising energy prices and selected consumer goods, although muted dynamics in durable goods prices may partially offset this. Alongside the PCE deflator, personal income and spending data for April will be released (consensus: +0.4% and +0.5% m/m respectively). Stronger-than-expected figures would be interpreted as a sign of accelerating inflation. Also on Thursday, the revised estimate of US Q1 GDP will be published (consensus: +2% y/y, unchanged from preliminary data), along with April durable goods orders and new home construction data. These releases will influence Q2 GDP expectations. Initial jobless claims will also be published (consensus: 211k vs. 209k previously). Before the market open, earnings will be released by Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Futu Holdings (FUTU), Burlington Stores (BURL), Best Buy (BBY), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto (LI). After the close, quarterly results will be reported by Costco Wholesale (COST), Dell Technologies (DELL), MongoDB (MDB), Autodesk (ADSK), UiPath (PATH), NetApp (NTAP), and Okta (OKTA). US equity index futures show moderately negative dynamics. The risk balance for the upcoming session is assessed as neutral, with elevated volatility due to a large block of key macro data and ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Resistance for the S&P 500 is at 7550, while support is located around 7465.

Key premarket movers

· Marvell Technology (MRVL) shares are down ~2% despite strong quarterly results and an upward revision of its long-term outlook. The company expects its custom chip segment revenue to exceed $10 billion by FY2029.

· Salesforce (CRM) shares are down ~2%. While revenue and earnings beat expectations, the current-quarter outlook came in slightly below consensus.

· Snowflake (SNOW) is up more than 30% following strong earnings and an increase in its FY2027 product revenue guidance to $5.84 billion.

· Agilent Technologies (A) is up ~5% after strong Q2 FY2026 results, with revenue at $1.83bn and EPS at $1.49 versus consensus of $1.8bn and $1.41.

· HEICO (HEI) is up ~10% after reporting record sales and profits in Q2 FY2026 with organic revenue growth above 18%.

· Nutanix (NTNX) is up ~3% after better-than-expected earnings results reduced investor concerns about growth momentum.

· Braze (BRZE) is down ~9% amid profit-taking despite strong revenue growth of 30% y/y.

Market recap

US markets closed mixed on May 27. The S&P 500 rose just 0.02% but reached another record high. NASDAQ 100 fell 0.09%, Dow Jones gained 0.36%, and Russell 2000 slipped 0.02%. Volatility remained low due to lack of strong catalysts. Consumer discretionary was the best-performing sector (+1.24%), while energy lagged (-1.5%) amid continued oil price declines. WTI dropped 5.6% to its lowest level since April.

Company news

· Lululemon (LULU: +2.9%) reached an agreement to resolve its corporate dispute with founder Chip Wilson.
· IREN (IREN: +13.5%) plans to acquire NVIDIA Blackwell systems worth $1.6 billion.
· Akzo Nobel (AKZOY: +19%) rejected a takeover offer.
· Bath & Body Works (BBWI: +9.7%) beat expectations on revenue and earnings.
· Boston Scientific (BSX: -12.5%) lowered its outlook due to weaker Watchman device sales.